How Has NVIDIA's Stock Performed After Earnings Reports in the Past Five Years?

NVIDIA, hailed as the world's most important stock and the leading force in AI, is set to release its fourth - quarter earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. As DeepSeek makes an impact on U.S. stocks and Microsoft is reported to be vacating data centers, the global spotlight is on NVIDIA. Wall Street is holding its breath, wondering whether the company can single - handedly turn the tide or accelerate the downward trend of U.S. stocks.

According to institutional estimates, NVIDIA's Q4 revenue is expected to reach $38.2 billion, a 73% year - over - year increase; the adjusted net profit is expected to be $20.95 billion, a 63% year - over - year increase. In the past 18 quarters, NVIDIA has exceeded Wall Street expectations in 16 quarters. However, the revenue growth rate this time may be the lowest in seven quarters, indicating that the growth curve is slowing down. Meanwhile, while beating expectations may be anticipated, what Wall Street is more eager to know is by how much and whether there will be any surprises. As the world's most important stock, investors' expectations are at their peak.

In addition, Jensen Huang's remarks during the conference call and the company's future guidance will also be the market's focal points. To some extent, they represent the future growth prospects of AI, especially after the impact of DeepSeek. For Jensen Huang, DeepSeek is definitely a topic that cannot be avoided during the earnings call.

For traders, NVIDIA's earnings report will not only have an impact on its own stock price but also bring significant volatility to the market. Options traders expect NVIDIA's stock price to experience a 7.7% fluctuation after the earnings announcement, which is equivalent to a massive market volatility of approximately $280 billion. Based on historical performance, NVIDIA's stock price has shown significant volatility after earnings releases. In the past five years, there has been a 55% probability of the stock price rising on the single day after the earnings announcement (with a median increase of 4.9%), and the probability of an increase in the past three years is nearly 60%.