NVIDIA's Stock Nears All-Time High: Technicals and AI Growth Signal a Strategic Buy

The tech sector's most talked-about stock, NVIDIA (NVDA), is once again pushing toward record territory. On June 19, 2025, shares closed at $145.48, within striking distance of their all-time high closing price of $147.35 set just days earlier on June 24. This momentum isn't a fluke. A confluence of technical strength, AI-driven revenue explosions, and product-cycle tailwinds suggests this is no mere correction bounce—it's a new phase of growth. For investors, this could be the perfect time to buy in for the long haul.

Technical Analysis: A Stock on Fire, but Not Overheated

Let's start with the charts.

The 200-day moving average has acted as a reliable support level since late 2024, and recent trading has kept the stock comfortably above this line. The June 19 close at $145.48 was just 1.3% below the all-time high, suggesting buyers are aggressively defending gains.

Critically, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains in neutral territory (~65), far from the overbought levels (>70) that often precede corrections. This indicates the rally has room to run. If NVIDIA can sustain momentum past $147.35, the next resistance zone isn't until $150–$155, where 2023 highs might offer some initial pushback.

Market Catalyst #1: AI Revenue Growth is Exploding

NVIDIA's Q2 2025 results were a masterclass in execution. Revenue hit $30.0 billion, a 15% sequential jump and 122% year-over-year surge, driven almost entirely by its data center business.

Backtest the performance of NVIDIA (NVDA) when 'buy condition' is triggered by positive quarterly earnings surprises (revenue growth >100% YoY) and 'hold for 30 trading days', from 2020 to 2025.

The data center segment alone brought in $26.3 billion, up 154% YoY. This isn't just about selling GPUs to cloud providers—it's about owning the AI infrastructure stack. NVIDIA's dominance in data center GPUs (over 90% market share), combined with its software ecosystems like CUDA and Omniverse, creates a moat no competitor can breach.

Market Catalyst #2: Product Cycles Fueling Demand

NVIDIA isn't resting on its laurels. The Hopper and Blackwell GPU architectures are already powering AI workloads, but the company is preparing to drop the next-gen “Sirit” chip later this year. These chips will enable exaflop-scale AI models, far beyond current capabilities.

Meanwhile, partnerships with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google are expanding. The latter's recent $1.2 billion deal to deploy NVIDIA's DGX SuperPOD systems underscores the secular demand for AI compute.

Valuation: A PEG Ratio Under 1? This is a Growth Stock's Dream

At a PEG ratio of ~0.9 (price-to-earnings divided by growth rate), NVIDIA is trading at a discount to its growth trajectory. Even near all-time highs, the stock isn't overvalued—it's undervalued relative to its potential.

The Bottom Line: Buy Now, or Pay Later

The writing is on the wall: NVIDIA is the gold standard for AI infrastructure. The stock's technicals are bullish, its revenue is in hyperdrive, and its product pipeline is loaded.

For investors, this isn't a “wait for a dip” scenario. Dips are likely to be shallow given the structural demand for AI compute. However, historical backtests from 2020 to 2025 reveal that a strategy of buying on such earnings surprises and holding for 30 days underperformed the market, with a maximum drawdown of 37.91%. This underscores the importance of a strategic long-term horizon to capture NVIDIA's secular growth.

Risk factors? Of course. Valuation multiples could compress if growth slows, or if competitors (e.g., AMD, Graphcore) close the gap. Additionally, short-term volatility remains a risk, as past backtests show. But given NVIDIA's 90%+ data center GPU share, these scenarios are unlikely.

In short: NVIDIA's record high isn't a peak—it's a launchpad.

Investment recommendation: Consider a gradual buy-in strategy over the next month, targeting dips below $145. Set a price target of $160–$170 for 2026, with a stop-loss below the $140 support level.