Nvidia's Staggering Stock Performance: A Cautionary Tale for Recent Buyers
AInvestSaturday, Nov 2, 2024 8:39 am ET
1min read
NVDA --
Nvidia's stock performance has been nothing short of remarkable. The company's market value surged by a staggering $273 billion in a single day, following a record quarterly revenue of $26.0 billion. However, investors who have recently bought the stock may be taking on a greater risk than they realize.

Nvidia's return on capital (ROC) over the past four quarters was an astounding 140%, with a cost of capital (COC) of 9.3%. This places the company in the 100th percentile for profitability among 21,000 publicly traded companies worldwide, according to Institutional Shareholder Services' ISS EVA. However, to justify its recent stock price of around $136, Nvidia must increase its economic profit by 21.4% annually for the next 20 years. This would require an economic profit of $2.2 trillion in the 20th year alone, which is highly unlikely given that the highest economic profit ever earned by any company in 12 months is $202.7 billion.


Nvidia's dominance in AI chips and soaring demand for AI applications have driven its impressive stock performance. However, maintaining such high growth rates over the long term is challenging, given the size of the company and the competitive landscape. Factors like AI demand, competition, and regulatory pressures could impact Nvidia's future performance, making it crucial for investors to monitor these dynamics.


Investors should be cautious and consider the potential risks associated with Nvidia's high valuation and the sustainability of its growth. While Nvidia's past performance has been impressive, recent buyers of the stock may be taking on a significant risk, as sustaining such high growth rates over the long term is challenging. Diversifying investments across various sectors and asset classes can help reduce the impact of any single risk factor on the overall portfolio.

In conclusion, Nvidia's stock performance has been remarkable, but recent buyers should be aware of the risks associated with its high valuation and the potential challenges in sustaining such high growth rates over the long term. Investors should exercise caution and consider diversifying their portfolios to manage risks effectively.
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