Nvidia Resumes H20 AI Chip Sales in China Amid Shrinking Market Share

Nvidia appears poised to re-enter the Chinese market with its H20 AI chips after the U.S. administration reportedly permitted the resumption of sales following a months-long export ban [3]. The decision was made last month, offering the semiconductor giant a partial return to a key market that had previously contributed significantly to its revenue [1]. However, the reinstatement comes amid a shifting landscape, as Chinese demand for AI chips has been met by a growing number of local competitors and alternatives [4].

Despite the reopening, experts remain skeptical about the extent of Nvidia’s market recovery. Tech analysts note that while the H20 chip may regain some traction, it is unlikely to recapture the same level of dominance it once held due to the emergence of domestic players and other foreign alternatives [2]. This is compounded by the fact that during the export ban period, Nvidia had already begun developing China-compliant variants such as the A800 and H800, which, although limited in performance, were designed to maintain a presence in the region [8].

The return of the H20 chip to China is seen as a strategic move for Nvidia. If sales resume at a significant scale, it could contribute meaningfully to the company’s revenue. One analyst noted that if the Chinese market were fully accessible, it could have accounted for a 77% year-over-year revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 [5]. However, this remains a forecast, and actual performance will depend on the competitiveness of its offerings in the current market.

The U.S. easing of restrictions is also viewed as a temporary reprieve for China’s AI sector, which has been striving to reduce its reliance on foreign technology. Analysts estimate that China’s AI market is expected to break even by 2030, with an anticipated return on investment of 52% [6]. While this suggests long-term growth potential, it also highlights the challenges for foreign vendors like Nvidia in maintaining a dominant position.

Nvidia’s decision to resume H20 chip sales in China follows earlier reports of a $4.5 billion revenue impact in its first fiscal quarter due to the export ban [7]. With the partial reopening, the company may see a boost in its 2026 fiscal year, with projections suggesting sales from China could reach nearly $20 billion [9]. However, the company will need to navigate a competitive environment and ensure that its products remain attractive to Chinese buyers.

Source:

[1] title1.............................(https://www.cryptopolitan.com/nvidia-poised-to-regain-china-market/)

[2] title2.............................(https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/04/nvidia-h20-china-market-share-recovery.html)

[3] title3.............................(https://digitalmarketreports.com/news/44924/nvidia-poised-to-regain-partial-access-to-china-but-faces-declining-ai-chip-market-share/)

[4] title4.............................(https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-genius-artificial-intelligence-ai-stocks-i-wouldnt-hesitate-investing-10000-right-now)

[5] title5.............................(https://politicstoday.org/china-proposes-global-ai-governance-framework/)

[6] title6.............................(https://www.ainvest.com/news/nvidia-convex-earnings-leverage-blackwell-era-supply-constraints-fuel-outsize-growth-2508/)

[7] title7.............................(https://www.aol.com/finance/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-touts-231557414.html)

[8] title8.............................(https://en.moneyandbanking.co.th/2025/188601/)

[9] title9.............................(https://ciso2ciso.com/china-investigates-nvidias-h20-chips-for-surveillance-risks-source-www-techrepublic-com/)