NVIDIA's Record $37.1B Volume Can't Lift Falling Stock as Analysts Clash on AI Demand and Geopolitical Risks

On August 20, 2025, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) closed with a 0.14% decline despite a record $37.13 billion trading volume, marking the highest turnover in the equity market. The stock faces mixed signals ahead of its Q2 FY26 earnings release scheduled for August 27, with analysts adjusting expectations based on evolving demand dynamics and supply chain developments.

Recent analyst activity highlights diverging views on the stock's trajectory. Morgan Stanley upgraded its price target to $206 from $200, citing sustained customer demand beyond core clients. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh raised his target to $215, projecting $47.1 billion in Q2 revenue driven by Blackwell GPU adoption and improved server rack yields. However, Vinh tempered expectations for Q3, reducing his forecast to $50.4 billion due to uncertainties in China-related revenue visibility.

Geopolitical factors continue to shape investor sentiment. U.S. export restrictions and a 15% revenue-sharing agreement for China sales remain central concerns. While Chinese regulatory skepticism toward H20 chips persists, reports suggest NVIDIA is developing a new Blackwell-based chip tailored for the market. These developments add complexity to earnings guidance, with Wedbush labeling the upcoming report as a potential "positive catalyst" amid rising AI adoption globally.

Backtesting of a high-volume trading strategy (2022–present) showed a 1-day return of 0.98% and cumulative gains of 31.52% over 365 days. This suggests short-term momentum capture but underscores risks tied to market timing and volatility.