Nvidia’s Options Tell a Story of Rising Bullish Sentiment—But Deep Puts Signal Caution at $150

• Nvidia (NVDA) is currently trading at $174.95, down slightly from the previous close of $175.64 with a -0.39% intraday decline.
• Options activity shows a strong imbalance: call open interest (7.7M) exceeds put open interest (6.8M), with a put/call ratio of just 0.88—highlighting bullish positioning.
• Block trading reveals large sell-side activity at the $180 strike, suggesting institutional players are hedging short-term risk before this week’s expiry.

What stands out today is that the options market isn’t just bullish—it’s leaning hard. Call OI is stacked at strikes like $180, $185, and $190 ahead of the Friday expiry, while deep puts at $150 are quietly absorbing risk. This isn’t a stock that’s just trending—it’s being positioned for a move. The question is: who’s right, the bulls or the hedgers?

Bullish Bias from OTM Calls and a Bearish Shadow at $150

The options market is clearly more confident in the upside than the downside. On this Friday’s expiry, the top OTM call with the highest open interest is at $185 (OI: 75,465), followed closely by $180 (OI: 71,502). This suggests a lot of money is parked near the $180–$185 range, expecting a breakout above the 30-day support/resistance band (180.01–180.47). And if you look at the moving averages—30D at $184.24, 200D at $178.60—it lines up nicely with that price cluster.

But here’s the catch: there’s a big put open interest at $150 (OI: 86,398), and it’s not just small retail players. That strike is a long way down, but the sheer volume implies someone is hedging against a major drop—possibly from a large holding firm or fund. It’s like an insurance policy. And when you see that kind of liquidity at a deep out-of-the-money put, it often means someone is planning a trade with a tight stop loss.

Block trading data adds another layer. A $1M sell put trade was executed at the $180 strike (NVDA20260618P180), and two separate trades totaling $1.59M happened at the $175 strike (NVDA20260501P175). That’s not random. It suggests some large players are either locking in downside protection or taking profits as the stock approaches key resistance.

Bullish News, Bearish Risks—How They Stack Up

Nvidia’s story is a classic one: it’s winning the AI race with record revenue, new partnerships, and product launches. The latest quarterly earnings came in at $22.1B, and Wall Street is raising targets all over the place. The share buyback program, the AWS partnership, the metaverse push—they’re all fueling the fire. But there’s a dark cloud: the U.S. trade restrictions, European regulatory scrutiny, and a recent analyst downgrade hint that not everything is smooth sailing.

The options market is clearly leaning into the AI story, but those deep puts aren’t just for show. They reflect a market that’s betting on the upside but not ignoring the risks. And if you look at the Bollinger Bands, the stock is trading near the lower band at $171.79, which is just above the 200D MA. That’s not a bullish setup on its own, but it’s not bearish either—it’s a tug-of-war between the long-term bulls and the short-term hedgers.

Trade Ideas: Call Plays, Puts to Hedge, and a Key Price Level to Watch

For the stock, here’s where I’d start: watch the $180 level closely. If NVDA holds above that level, the next target could be the upper Bollinger Band at $192.86. A close above $185 would confirm bullish momentum. Entry near $180 with a stop just below at $176 could set up a clean long position with defined risk.

For options, I’d be eyeing the NVDA20260327C185 call with $0.87 in implied move. It’s expiring Friday and has a ton of OI behind it. If you want a slightly safer play, the NVDA20260403C190 could offer a longer runway. For hedging, the NVDA20260327P150 is deep but has high OI—use it as a floor if you’re bullish on the stock but want downside protection.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next week is going to be interesting. With expiry Friday, the options market will settle some of that call-heavy OI at $180 and $185. If the stock breaks through that level cleanly, we could see a real push toward the $190–$200 range. But if the puts at $150 start to get picked up by more traders, it might signal a shift in sentiment. Either way, the data is clear: NVDA isn’t just moving—it’s being positioned for a move.

This is the kind of setup that traders live for. It’s not about betting on a single direction; it’s about reading the room, knowing where the big money is, and acting with both conviction and caution. Right now, Nvidia is a stock with both opportunity and risk—and if you know where to look, the options market tells you exactly which one to prepare for.