Nvidia Options Price 7% Move Ahead of GTC Event: YieldMax Strategist

Options traders are bracing for a sizable move in Nvidia shares ahead of the chipmaker’s upcoming developer conference, with the derivatives market implying a roughly 7% swing over the next two weeks, according to Mike Khouw, YieldMax ETFs strategist and CNBC contributor, in an interview with AInvest.

Khouw said the implied move can be estimated by examining the price of at-the-money call and put options expiring shortly after the company’s GPU Technology Conference (GTC) scheduled for next week March 16-19. Nvidia was trading near $179, on Monday March 9, while the nearest options with a $180 strike expiring around the event were priced at roughly $5.80 for calls and about $6.65 to $6.70 for puts.

“The calls are about $5.80 and the puts are about $6.65, $6.70… So we put those two together and we get $12.50. So $12.50 is the implied move,” Khouw said in the AInvest interview.

That implied $12.50 move represents about 7% of the stock price over a roughly two-week window, a notable expectation even for one of the world’s largest companies.

“Seven percent over the course of two weeks is a pretty big move… especially for a company that’s over four trillion bucks,” Khouw said.

The options market is also signaling continued bullish sentiment toward Nvidia. Over the prior 20 days, call option volume has exceeded put volume by about 50%, indicating traders have largely been positioning for upside moves in the shares, Khouw said.

Elevated volatility across global markets is also influencing options pricing. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—a widely watched gauge of expected market swings over the next 30 days—has climbed well above its typical range, pushing options premiums higher.

“The VIX index… right now is about 28. What is it normally? 16? 15?” Khouw said, noting that broader market uncertainty tends to raise implied volatility in individual stocks as well.

Nvidia’s size and influence within major equity benchmarks amplify those effects. The company is the largest component in both the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500, meaning significant movements in its shares can have outsized effects on broader market indices.

Beyond short-term trading expectations, Khouw discussed the broader mechanics behind YieldMax’s options-income exchange-traded funds, which are designed to generate regular distributions by selling options around exposure to widely traded stocks.

“YieldMax ETFs has a number of what we call options income ETFs. At a very high level, you get exposure to the underlying asset… and then you sell options premium around that,” he said.

In many cases, the funds obtain exposure through synthetic positions created with options rather than holding the underlying stock directly. That structure helps ensure the funds remain compliant with diversification rules under the Investment Company Act of 1940 governing exchange-traded funds.

“Those funds basically for the most part hold U.S. Treasuries. And then they take a synthetic position in the underlying stock using options… largely so that they can still comply with the diversification rules,” Khouw said.

Once the synthetic exposure is established, the strategy typically involves selling call spreads—options strategies that generate premium income while retaining some participation in potential stock gains.

“By selling a call spread… if the stock moves up, let’s say 15% in a week, we hope to capture 75 to 80% of that upside move while we’ve been collecting these premiums all along,” Khouw said.

The approach reflects growing demand among retail and institutional investors for packaged options strategies that can generate income without requiring investors to actively trade options contracts themselves.

“Packaging them into an ETF gives people the ability to buy something that is a strategy, that uses options, but trades like a stock,” Khouw said.

With Nvidia’s GTC event approaching and volatility elevated across markets, options traders and income-focused investors alike are watching how the company’s next round of announcements could influence both stock performance and demand for strategies designed to monetize market swings.