NVIDIA Options Activity Points to Downside Risk: Watch the $170 Put and Key Expiry Levels This Week

• Open interest in OTM puts is surging ahead of Friday's expiry, with the $170 strike leading the charge. • Block trading hints at large-scale puts being traded at $180 and $165. • Technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish shift, with support levels under pressure. • The put/call ratio is skewed in favor of calls, but OTM puts are seeing strong demand.

You’ve seen it before: the market whispers, and the options scream. Today, March 19, 2026, NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading at $178.84, down 0.86% from its previous close of $180.40. The stock is in a short-term bearish trend, and options data suggests that traders are positioning for a potential breakdown.

What the OTM Options and Block Trading Reveal About Sentiment

Looking at the options chain, the top OTM calls for this Friday (March 20) are at $200, $190, $195, $185, and $210, with the $200 call having the highest open interest at 227,551. But the real story is in the puts. The $170 put leads the pack with 136,358 open interest, followed by $160 and $175. This isn’t just a shift—it’s a signal. Traders are locking in downside protection ahead of the expiry.

And it’s not just retail traders. The block trades tell us that large institutional players are also on the same page. A $180 put with the code NVDA20260402P180 was traded at $386,640 in turnover. Another $180 put with a longer expiry (April 17) was also hit with a large trade. These aren’t random trades—they’re directional bets.

The put/call ratio for open interest is 0.84, meaning more calls are outstanding, but OTM puts are seeing aggressive accumulation. That tells me the market is preparing for a potential selloff.

No Major News, But Investor Sentiment Is Telling

While there’s been no major news in the last 3-4 days, the lack of headlines doesn’t mean the market is asleep. Investor sentiment is often driven by expectations, and with NVIDIA’s recent pullback and technical indicators pointing south, the narrative is shifting. The RSI at 44.9 and MACD below the signal line suggest momentum is fading to the upside.

The 200-day moving average at $178.07 is a psychological level. If NVDA breaks below that, it could trigger a larger sell-off. And if the $170 put sees more action this week, it’s likely that institutional traders are already hedging for a move lower.

Actionable Trading Opportunities: Where to Focus

For options traders, the most attractive contracts are the NVDA20260320P170 and NVDA20260327P170. These puts are seeing strong open interest and are positioned near a key psychological level. If the stock breaks below the 200-day MA and support at $182.77, these puts could be a strong play.

For stock traders, consider a short position or tight stop-limit order around $182.77 if the support breaks. A potential target zone lies near the lower Bollinger Band at $174.63, with a stop just above $185.50 to protect from a rebound.

On the bullish side, if the stock retests the 30-day MA at $184.39 and holds, a long position with a stop just below $178.50 could also make sense, but the options data suggests the odds are tilted toward the downside this week.

Volatility on the Horizon

The market is poised for a move. With options expiring this Friday and next, and block trades pointing to a bearish setup, volatility is likely to spike. The $170 put is the key to watch. If it closes in the money, it could accelerate the selloff. If it expiries worthless, the stock might find a floor.

Either way, the next 72 hours could be telling. Keep a close eye on the options chain, especially the $170 and $180 strikes. That’s where the money is moving—and where the trade is likely to be.

The key takeaway? NVIDIA is at a crossroads. The bearish technicals, the options flow, and the block trades all point to a potential breakdown. Traders who position themselves ahead of Friday’s expiry with a focus on the $170 put and key support levels could be in for a strong move.

Stay alert. The market is already moving—now it's just waiting for confirmation.