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Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market and technicals are painting a clear bullish picture, with institutional players hedging downside risk while retail and algo money chase higher strikes. Let’s break down why this could be a setup for upside — and where to watch for cracks in the narrative.
Bullish Sentiment in Options: Calls Climb, Puts HedgeIf you’ve been watching the options chain today, you’ve noticed the call/put imbalance. The put/call ratio for open interest is just 0.86, meaning more money is flowing into calls than puts. The top OTM calls expiring this Friday ($190, $195) have 91,547 and 68,025 contracts open, respectively — a sign that traders are pricing in a potential push toward $200. But here’s the twist: the $185 put strike has 33,456 open contracts, and block trades like NVDA20260220P180NVDA20260220P180-- (selling 5,670 puts) suggest big players are locking in protection just in case.
This isn’t just random noise. It’s a bullish-with-caution playbook. The market expects a short-term pop (thanks to China chip news and Huang’s trip) but is hedging against a pullback to the 200-day moving average at $165.25. The danger? If the $186.82 intraday low breaks, those puts could get exercised, creating a downward spiral.
China Chip Approval and CEO Moves: Fuel for the FireLet’s connect the dots. The Bloomberg report about Chinese tech giants greenlit to buy H200 chips isn’t just a headline — it’s a $10+ catalyst for NVDANVDA--. Combine that with Jensen Huang’s planned China visit, and you’ve got a narrative that’s hard to ignore. But here’s the catch: the market already priced in part of this. The 1.5% premarket pop was a reaction to the CEO’s trip, not the chip approval itself. That means today’s move is more about momentum than fundamental re-rating.
Still, the news aligns with the options data. If the $190 call strike (current OI: 91,547) is hit by Friday, it’ll validate the bullish case. But if the $185 put strike (OI: 33,456) sees heavy buying, it could signal a pause — or worse, a reversal.
Trade Ideas: Calls for Aggressive Play, Puts for DefenseFor options traders, the most attractive setup is the $190 call expiring Jan 30 (NVDA20260130C190NVDA20260130C190--). With 66,127 contracts open, this strike is a magnet for liquidity. If NVDA closes above $189.60 (today’s high) by midday, this call could see a pop. For a stock play, consider entering near $186.82 (intraday low) with a stop just below $184.65 (30-day support). Target $191.99 (Bollinger Upper Band) as a short-term ceiling.
On the defensive side, a put spread between $185 and $170 could cap losses. The NVDA20260130P185NVDA20260130P185-- (OI: 21,052) paired with the $170 put (OI: 21,489) creates a collar that protects against a drop to the 200-day line. But don’t get greedy — if the stock dips below $182.68 (200D resistance), it’s time to cut losses.
Volatility on the HorizonThe next 72 hours will tell the story. If NVDA holds above $186.82 and the $190 call strike sees heavy volume, this could be the start of a $200 run. But if the $185 put strike (OI: 33,456) spikes, it’ll be a warning sign. Either way, the options market is already pricing in a directional move — the only question is which way.

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