Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Dec 26 Expiry

• NVDA surges 1.3% to $183.40, outpacing its 30D support/resistance range of $180.50–$182.24.
• Call open interest dominates at $185–$250 strikes, with the NVDA20251226C190 call (40,928 OI) as a focal point.
• Block trades like the 26,000-lot NVDA20250919C175 buy suggest institutional bullishness ahead of key product launches.

Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market is pricing in a high-probability upside breakout, backed by strong technicals and AI-driven fundamentals. Let’s break down why this matters for your portfolio.

Bullish Imbalance in OTM Calls and Whale Moves

Options data tells a clear story: traders are betting big on NVDA’s upside. The top OTM calls expiring this Friday ($185–$250) hold 233,270 combined open interest, while puts at $160–$150 only muster 52,435 OI. This call/put OI ratio of ~4.5:1 screams conviction. The NVDA20251226C190 call ($190 strike, expiring Friday) is a magnet for capital—its 40,928 OI suggests a potential liquidity trap if the stock breaks above $190.

But don’t ignore the risks. The MACD (-2.6) and RSI (51.3) hint at a potential pullback to the 200D MA ($157.56) if short-term momentum falters. Block trades like the NVDA20250919C175 (26,000 contracts bought) and NVDA20260116P160 (1,250 puts) signal mixed positioning—some players are hedging long-term downside while others are stacking up for a near-term pop.

News Flow: AI Dominance Fuels the Bull Case

Nvidia’s recent headlines are a goldmine for bulls. The Q4 earnings beat ($12.5B revenue), H200 AI chip launch, and $2.5B SynthMind acquisition aren’t just headlines—they’re structural tailwinds. The Tesla and AWS partnerships, in particular, lock in recurring revenue streams that justify the stock’s premium valuation.

But here’s the catch: the market already priced in much of this. The 10% post-earnings surge to $128 (in after-hours) means today’s $183.40 level is a test of sustainability. If the stock holds above the 30D MA ($182.66), the news flow will keep amplifying the bullish case. Drop below $179.68 (middle Bollinger Band), though, and the puts at $160–$170 could trigger a short-term selloff.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls, Stock, and Risk Management

For options traders:

• NVDA20251226C190 (this Friday’s expiry): Buy this call if NVDA closes above $185.50 today. Target $195–$200 for a 20–30% gain.
• NVDA20260102C190 (next Friday’s expiry): A longer-dated play if you want to ride the AI hype into Q1.

For stock buyers:

• Entry near $182.50 (just below today’s open at $183.92) if the 30D MA holds.
• Targets: $190 (breaks through Bollinger Band), $200 (aligns with RSI neutrality), and $220 (matches the 220 call’s OI peak).
• Stop-loss: $179.00 (below the 200D support range).

A risk-reversal strategy could work too: buy the NVDA20251226C190 and sell the NVDA20251226P170 to offset premium costs.

Volatility on the Horizon

Nvidia’s options activity and news flow point to a high-conviction trade with clear entry/exit levels. The key is to balance the short-term call bias with long-term structural trends. If the stock holds above $180, the 200D MA becomes a floor—not a ceiling. But if it cracks below $179.68, watch for a scramble to the puts at $160. Either way, the next 72 hours will tell us if this is a breakout or a blip. Stay nimble, and let the data guide your next move.