Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $190 Dominate as Puts Lag – Here’s How to Play the AI Megatrend

• Nvidia trades at $187.67, up 0.33% with volume surging to 114.6M shares. • Call open interest (OI) at $190 and $195 strikes dominates this Friday’s options chain. • Analysts at Jefferies and Oppenheimer raise price targets, citing AI-driven growth. • Block trades show large sell calls at $190 and buy calls at $185 for next Friday’s expiry.

Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market and technicals are leaning sharply to the upside, but risks loom if the stock falters near key support. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Calls at $190 and $195 Signal Institutional Conviction

Options data tells a clear story: traders are piling into calls at the $190 and $195 strikes for Friday’s expiry, with OI of 92,496 and 97,578 contracts respectively. This isn’t just retail noise—block trades like NVDA20260123C190 (14,098 contracts sold) and NVDA20260123C185 (3,000 bought) suggest institutional players are hedging or shorting calls at these levels. The $190 strike is especially critical: it’s where the 30D support (184.65–185.04) and 200D support (179.98–182.24) converge. If bulls push through $190, the next target is the upper Bollinger Band at $195.15. But watch for short-covering pressure if the stock dips below $187.09 (intraday low), which could trigger a test of the 183.81 30D MA.

Puts Lag, But Don’t Ignore the $185 Put Wall

Put OI is spread thinner, with the $100 and $160 strikes dominating. That’s not a bearish signal—it just means sellers are less active. However, the $185 put (OI: 25,747 for next Friday) is quietly building a wall of liquidity. If the stock stumbles and breaks the 183.81 30D MA, this strike could become a magnet for panic buyers. The put/call ratio of 0.89 (calls > puts) reinforces the bullish bias, but don’t mistake it for a free pass. A reversal below $184.65 (30D support) would force a reevaluation of the trend.

News Flow: AI Optimism vs. Valuation Concerns

Analysts are all-in on Nvidia’s AI dominance. Jefferies raised its price target to $275, and Oppenheimer calls it an "AI castle on the hill." TSMC’s CEO even validated sustained demand for Nvidia’s chips. But here’s the catch: the stock’s $4.5T market cap assumes 25% annual free cash flow growth for a decade. If AI adoption slows or tariffs bite, the stock could face a repricing. The recent $57B revenue quarter (62% YoY growth) is impressive, but margins above 70% are a double-edged sword—any erosion here would shock the market.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls at $190 and a Bull Put Spread

For options traders: Buy NVDA20260123C190 (next Friday expiry) if the stock breaks above $190. The block trade at this strike suggests a short squeeze if the move materializes. Alternatively, a bull put spread at $185/$190 (buy NVDA20260123P185, sell NVDA20260123P190) caps risk while capitalizing on the $185 support level. For stock players: Enter near $187.50 if the price holds above 184.65. Target $195 (upper Bollinger Band) with a stop-loss below $184.65. Avoid buying above $190 unless volume confirms a breakout.

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for Nvidia’s AI-Driven Ascent

Nvidia’s options and fundamentals are aligned for a bullish push, but the $190–$195 range is a battleground. The key is to balance conviction in the AI narrative with discipline around risk. If the stock holds its support levels and clears $190, the 200D MA at $163.68 becomes a distant memory. But if it falters, the 183.81 30D MA is the first line of defense. Either way, the next 72 hours will tell us if this is a short-term pop or the start of a new leg higher.