Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $200 Call Contention as Trump H200 Approval Adds Fuel to AI Bull Case

• NVDA trades at $184.96, down 0.3% with volume surging to 86.5M shares.
• Call open interest dominates at $190 and $200 strikes, while put/call ratio for open interest sits at 0.89 (bullish skew).
• Block trades show 26,000 calls bought at $175 strike (expiring Sept 19) and 1,250 puts sold at $160 (Jan 16).

Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market is leaning hard into a $200+ price target—backed by Trump’s H200 chip approval, surging data center revenue, and a call-heavy options structure. The stock shows clear upside potential but faces near-term volatility from geopolitical and self-sufficiency risks in China.

Bullish Call Contention vs. Deep Put Skew: What the Options Are Saying

The options chain tells two stories. First, call open interest is concentrated at $190 (145K contracts) and $200 (85K this week, 106K next week). That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence from institutional players expecting a push above $200 by December 19. The MACD histogram flipping positive and RSI hovering near 49 (neutral) suggest momentum could flip higher soon.

But don’t ignore the puts. While the put/call ratio (0.89) shows a bullish skew, deep puts at $155 and $100 strikes (76K OI at $100) hint at hedging activity. The block trade of 26,000 calls at $175 (NVDA20250919C175) is especially telling—it’s a whale-sized bet on sustained AI demand, not just a short-term pop.

Trump’s H200 Approval: A Tailwind or a Double-Edged Sword?

The news cycle is a mixed bag. On one hand, Trump’s approval of H200 sales to China (with a 25% U.S. cut) and partnerships with Mistral AI/AWS are fueling the AI bull case. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley just raised price targets to $275 and $250, respectively. Q3 revenue hit $57B, with data center growth outpacing even the most optimistic forecasts.

On the flip side, China’s push for self-sufficiency (Huawei’s Ascend chips, Baidu’s Kunlun) could limit H200 adoption. Jensen Huang himself called Huawei’s chips “comparable.” But here’s the kicker: supply shortages in China’s semiconductor industry and performance gaps still give NVIDIA a window. The question isn’t if the stock can go higher—it’s how long the bullish narrative holds.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders, the $200 call expiring Dec 19 (NVDA20251219C200) is a high-conviction play. At 106K OI, it’s the most contested strike. If NVDA breaks above the 20-day EMA ($184.35) and holds the $183.32 intraday low, this call could pay off. A safer bet? The $180 put (NVDA20251219P180) with 23K OI—ideal if the stock stumbles but holds above key support at $179.40.

Stock traders: Buy near $183.32 (intraday low) if the 20-day EMA holds. Target $195–$200 as the first resistance cluster. If the stock dips below $179.40, tighten stops and consider the $175 put (NVDA20251219P175) for downside protection.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Geopolitical Risks

The next two weeks will test NVDA’s resolve. A breakout above $185.71 (intraday high) would validate the bullish case, while a close below $179.40 could trigger a deeper pullback. The options market is pricing in a $200+ outcome, but don’t forget: Trump’s H200 approval is a wildcard. If China’s self-sufficiency efforts accelerate, the puts at $100 and $155 could suddenly gain relevance.

Bottom line: This is a stock with two speeds—high-octane AI growth and geopolitical headwinds. The options structure and news flow align for a $200+ target, but patience and tight risk management are non-negotiable. Trade with the trend, but keep an eye on the exit.