Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $200 Call Contention as Block Trades Hint at Volatility Play — Here’s How to Position for 2026’s AI Surge

• Nvidia trades at $184.74, down slightly from its 30D MA but above its 200D MA of $162.19.
• Options Open Interest shows a 0.89 Put/Call ratio (calls dominate), with heavy call OI at $200 and put OI at $180.
• Block trades like NVDA20260116P180 (1,500 puts sold) and NVDA20260123P180 (7,200 puts traded) suggest institutional positioning ahead of key expirations.

The options market is sending a mixed but telling message: traders are betting on a potential $200+ pop in the short term while hedging against a pullback to $180. Here’s how to navigate the crosscurrents.

Bullish Calls at $200 and Bearish Puts at $180: A Tale of Two Scenarios

The top OTM call options for this Friday (Jan 16) are clustered at $200 (OI: 163,665), $195 (86,931), and $190 (84,733). This suggests a lot of money is being placed on a sharp rebound—likely tied to the AI hype cycle and Jensen Huang’s recent CES keynote. But don’t ignore the puts: the $180 strike (OI: 15,821 for next Friday) and $100 puts (massive OI: 102,773) show deep-seated fear of a broader market selloff.

The block trades add intrigue. A 1,500-contract sale of NVDA20260116P180 (Jan 16 expiring) implies someone is locking in protection if the stock dips below $180. Meanwhile, the 7,200-contract trade in NVDA20260123P180 (Jan 23) hints at a larger bet that volatility will spike before the next expiration.

News Flow: AI Hype vs. Short-Term Profit-Taking

Jensen Huang’s CES speech lit up the AI narrative—physical AI, robotics, and autonomous systems are now front and center. Analysts like Dan Ives are still bullish, projecting a $6 trillion market cap. But the stock’s 0.06% dip today reflects profit-taking after a monster 2025.

Here’s the catch: the options data and news aren’t at odds. The AI story is long-term, but traders are pricing in near-term uncertainty. If Huang’s roadmap translates to Q1 earnings beats, the $200 call wall could ignite. But if macro risks (interest rates, China demand) flare up, those $180 puts might be your lifeline.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

• Bullish Play: Buy NVDA20260116C200 (Jan 16 $200 call) if NVDA breaks above its 30D support/resistance zone of $184.65–$185.04. Why? The $200 strike has the most liquidity, and a breakout could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy NVDA20260123P180 (Jan 23 $180 put) if NVDA dips below $182.24 (200D support). This gives you time to ride out short-term noise while protecting against a drop to the Bollinger Band lower bound ($171.80).
• Stock Entry: Consider buying NVDA near $184.65 (support level) with a target at $190 (current 30D upper Bollinger Band). If it fails to hold $183.02 (intraday low), exit to preserve capital.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Market Realities

Nvidia’s story isn’t just about chips—it’s about reshaping industries. But markets don’t always wait for fundamentals to play out. The next two weeks will test whether the $200 call wall can push through or if the $180 put buyers will force a consolidation.

Your edge? Stay nimble. If NVDA holds above $183.68 (middle Bollinger Band), the bulls have momentum. Below that? The puts might be your best friend. Either way, the options data shows a market bracing for a move—your job is to decide which way the wind will blow.