Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $200 Call Contention as AI Hype Meets Technical Resistance

• NVDA surges 3.8% to $180.80, breaking above 30D MA at $182.9 amid bullish options flow.
• Options market shows 1.13x call-heavy open interest, with $200 and $185 calls dominating this Friday’s expiry.
• Analysts raise price targets to $350, but technical indicators flag $182.9 as critical resistance.

Here’s the thing: Nvidia’s stock is dancing on a tightrope between AI optimism and technical caution. The options market is screaming for a breakout above $182.9, but the MACD histogram is still negative, and RSI at 46.18 hints at a potential pullback. Let’s break down what’s really happening.

Where the Money Is Flowing: Calls at $200, Puts at $160, and Whale Moves

The options chain is a goldmine of insight. For this Friday’s expiry, the top call open interest is at $200 (95,683 contracts) and $185 (66,358), while puts peak at $160 (65,674). That’s a clear call-heavy bias—traders are betting on a rally beyond $185, but the $200 strike feels like a psychological battleground.

Block trades add intrigue. A 26,000-contract call buy at $175 (expiring Sept 19) and a $14.58M call purchase at $175 (Oct 17) suggest big players are hedging or scaling up positions. Meanwhile, the put/call ratio of 0.886 (calls dominate) reinforces the bullish tilt. But don’t ignore the risk: If the stock falters below $179.66 (middle Bollinger Band), those puts at $160 and $165 could trigger a selloff.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Analysts are all over the place. Truist’s William Stein just raised his target to $275, and Bernstein argues NVDA is "unusually cheap" at 25x forward P/E. The Trump administration’s greenlight for H200 chip exports to China is a major tailwind—Jensen Huang called it a "billions-dollar opportunity."

But here’s the catch: The stock’s 3.6% dip since last earnings shows cracks in the narrative. While Blackwell GPU shipments are crushing revenue, the 73.6% gross margin dipped 140 bps YoY. And let’s not forget the red flag: If hyperscalers slow AI spending, lower-performance chips could erode Nvidia’s dominance. The news is bullish, but the market isn’t pricing in certainty.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $185, Puts at $175, and a Bull Put Spread

For options traders, the most actionable plays are:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy NVDA20251219C185 (strike at $185, OI: 66,358) and sell NVDA20251219C190 (OI: 61,411). Target a $185–$190 range if the stock breaks above $182.9.
• Bullish Long Call: NVDA20251226C182.5 (OI: 58,498) for next Friday’s expiry. If the stock holds above $179.66, this could capitalize on a push toward $185.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $179.66 (middle Bollinger Band) with a stop-loss below $176.35 (intraday low). Target $185 if resistance breaks, but watch the 30D MA at $182.9 like a hawk.
• Bear Put Spread: Buy NVDA20251219P175 (OI: 53,916) and sell NVDA20251219P160 (OI: 65,674) if the stock dips below $179.66. This caps risk while hedging against a potential pullback.

Volatility on the Horizon: Bulls vs. Bears at the Gate

The next 72 hours will be pivotal. If NVDA closes above $182.9, the $200 call wall could ignite a parabolic move. But a close below $179.66 might trigger a test of the 200D MA at $157.21—don’t bet the farm on that. The key takeaway? This is a stock caught between AI euphoria and technical reality. Play it like a chess game: position for the breakout, but keep a safety net. The options market isn’t just betting on a rally—it’s pricing in a war for $200.