Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $200 Bull Case: How Traders Can Ride the AI Surge Amid Volatility

• NVDA trades at $181.25, down 2.45% from its 52-week high of $185.81
• Options data shows 172,327 open interest at the $200 call strike (this Friday’s expiry) vs. 102,780 puts at $100
• A $170 put block trade (NVDA20260220P170) hints at institutional floor-betting ahead of February

Here’s the core insight: Nvidia’s options market is split between short-term bearishness and long-term AI optimism. While the stock dips below its 30-day moving average ($183.51), heavy call open interest at $200 suggests big money still sees a path to $200+ — but only if the AI hype cycle doesn’t crack first.

"Bullish Whales Are Building a $200 Wall"

Let’s unpack the options chessboard. This Friday’s $200 call (NVDA20260116C200) has 172,327 open contracts — nearly double the next strike. That’s not just noise; it’s a vote of confidence from institutional players who think NVDA will rebound sharply before expiry. Contrast that with the $100 put (NVDA20260116P100) at 102,780 OI — a deep bearish bet that assumes a catastrophic collapse (unlikely given NVDA’s 200D MA at $162.92).

The block trade at NVDA20260220P170 — 700 puts sold for $360/contract — adds another layer. Someone is betting NVDA won’t fall below $170 before February. Combine that with Bollinger Bands showing the lower bound at $173.34, and you get a de facto support corridor: $173–$175. If the stock holds here, the $200 call buyers might get their wish.

"News: AI Hype vs. Reality Check"

Nvidia’s recent DRIVE platform upgrade is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it accelerates autonomous vehicle tech for Toyota and Mercedes — good for NVDA’s chip sales. On the other, it indirectly threatens Tesla’s Cybercab ambitions, creating a ripple effect. The 80% surge prediction hinges on Blackwell GPU demand, but Tom Sosnoff’s "boring idea" critique warns against overpaying for AI hype.

Here’s the rub: options traders are pricing in the best-case scenario. If Blackwell sales underwhelm or Tesla’s robotaxi delays hit, the RSI at 54.59 (neutral) could plunge into oversold territory. That’s why the $170–$182 support/resistance zone (200D range) is critical.

"Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic"

For the aggressive: Buy NVDA20260116C200 calls this Friday if NVDA rebounds above $184.45 (intraday high). Target: $200. Stop-loss: $178.

For the balanced: A bull call spread using next Friday’s $190/$200 strikes (NVDA20260123C190 + NVDA20260123C200) caps risk while leveraging the $200 OI buildup. Entry: $185–$187. Target: $195 (middle Bollinger Band).

For the cautious: Buy NVDA20260116P180 puts this Friday if NVDA breaks below $181.07 (intraday low). Stop-loss: $184.65 (30D support).

"Volatility on the Horizon"

The next 72 hours will test NVDA’s resolve. A close above $184.45 could reignite the $200 call frenzy; a break below $173.34 would validate the $170 block trade’s bearishness. Either way, the 200D MA at $162.92 remains a psychological floor — and a last line of defense for long-term bulls.

Remember: This is a high-stakes poker game. The AI narrative is strong, but markets don’t care about logic when fear or greed takes over. Your move?