Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $200 Bull Call Play Amid $170 Whale Put Hedge – Here’s How to Position for AI Chip Catalysts

• Nvidia trades at $184.94, down 0.05% with volume surging to 18.7 million shares.
• Options data shows 160,848 open contracts for $200 calls expiring Jan 16, vs. 100,938 puts at $100—hinting at a bullish bias.
• China H200 chip approval and Vera Rubin production ramp-up could fuel a $250 price target by year-end.

Here’s the takeaway: Options market sentiment is skewed bullish with heavy call open interest at $200 strikes, but a mysterious $170 put block trade hints at potential downside risks. The stock sits at a crossroads—technical indicators suggest a short-term pullback but long-term momentum remains intact. Let’s break it down.

Bull Call Overload at $200 vs. Whale Put at $170

The options chain tells a story of institutional conviction. For next Friday’s expiration (Jan 16), NVDA20260116C200 calls dominate with 160,848 open contracts—nearly double the nearest competitor. This suggests major players are pricing in a $200+ move, likely tied to the China H200 chip rollout and Vera Rubin production.

But don’t ignore the puts. A block trade of 945 contracts for NVDA20260417P170 (expiring April 17) moved $845k, signaling a hedge against a potential dip below $170. While the near-term put open interest is concentrated at $180, this deeper-out put suggests some players are bracing for a sharper correction if China-related risks materialize.

News Flow: AI Chips and Earnings Revisions Fuel Optimism

The recent China H200 authorization is a game-changer. Analysts are now factoring in $54B in potential revenue from Chinese sales, pushing forward P/E below 25—a discount for a company with 32% CAGR earnings growth. Meanwhile, the Vera Rubin platform’s 10x cost reduction for inference tokens could unlock new AI infrastructure demand.

Yet the stock’s flat performance reflects skepticism. Traders are pricing in profit-taking after a 10% rebound from December lows. The key question: Will the $500B+ order book translate to sustained buying, or will near-term profit-taking cap gains until Q1 earnings?

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Hedging

For options traders, consider these setups:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy NVDA20260116C200 (next Friday) and sell NVDA20260116C210 to cap risk. Target a $200+ close to lock in gains.
• Hedge Play: Buy NVDA20260116P180 (this Friday) if the stock dips below $185. This protects against a test of the 30D support at $181.

For stock traders, here’s the plan:

• Long Entry: Buy near $185 if the price holds above the 30D MA ($182.83). Target $195 (Bollinger Middle Band + 8%) with a stop below $180.
• Short-Term Play: Sell into weakness if the stock tests $181–$182 support. Use the 200D MA ($161.87) as a floor for risk management.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Bets and Bearish Hedges

The market is pricing in a volatile few weeks. While the $200 call frenzy suggests a near-term breakout, the $170 put block trade acts as a warning flag. If the stock holds above $180, the path to $250 becomes more plausible. But a breakdown below $179.98 (200D support) could trigger a reevaluation of China-related risks.

Bottom line: Position for a $200+ move but keep a tight stop below $180. The AI infrastructure story is still in early innings, and Nvidia’s options market is already pricing in the next chapter.