Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $195 Bull Call Play as AI Partnership Fuels Momentum

• NVDA surges 1.22% to $190.92, breaking above 30D MA of $182.04
• Call OI dominance at $195 strike ($41,041 open contracts) hints at near-term bullish bets
• Groq licensing deal valued at $20B sparks analyst price targets up to $300

Here’s the takeaway: Options market sentiment and technicals are aligning for a clear upside bias. With call open interest outpacing puts by 16% and a strategic AI partnership in play, NVDA looks primed to test key resistance levels in the coming days. Let’s break down why this could be a pivotal moment for traders.

Bull Call Pressure and Whale Moves at $195

The options chain tells a story of conviction. For Friday expiration (2025-12-26), the $195 call ($NVDA20251226C195) leads with 41,041 open contracts—nearly double the next strike. This isn’t just retail noise: A massive block trade of 26,000 calls at the $175 strike (NVDA20250919C175) in late September suggests institutional positioning for a multi-month rally.

Meanwhile, the next Friday (2026-01-02) call OI shows even stronger buildup at $192.50 (71,743 contracts) and $197.50 (63,455). This staggered strike distribution implies a "ladder of liquidity" for bulls—meaning the market is pricing in a high probability of breaking above $195.

But don’t ignore the puts: The $160 put ($NVDA20251226P160) has 52,267 open contracts, acting as a psychological floor. If NVDA dips below $185, that could trigger a short-covering bounce. The key risk? A breakdown below the 200D MA at $158.73 would invalidate the bullish case entirely.

AI Partnership Validates Long-Term Optimism

The Groq licensing deal isn’t just a headline—it’s a strategic move to counter Google’s TPU threat. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald and Rosenblatt see this as a catalyst for renewed growth, with price targets as high as $300. But here’s the catch: D.A. Davidson’s skepticism about Groq’s memory limitations means the stock could face short-term volatility if earnings reports don’t show immediate traction.

Investor perception is critical here. The market has priced in a "no AI bubble" narrative, but if Q1 2026 guidance misses expectations, that could trigger a reevaluation. For now, though, the partnership reinforces the thesis that NVDA’s CUDA ecosystem remains the gold standard for inference workloads.

Actionable Trade Ideas for 2026-01-02 Expiry

For options traders: The NVDA20260102C195 call is the most compelling play. With 61,359 open contracts and a strike just 0.7% below current price, it offers leveraged exposure if the stock holds above $192.50. A tighter play is the NVDA20260102C192.5 (71,743 OI), which becomes in-the-money if the 30D support at $180.54 holds.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $182.24 (200D MA) with a stop below $180.79 (middle Bollinger Band). The first target is $195 (current call OI hotspot), with a stretch target at $200—where the 100D MA ($182.65) and 200D MA converge. For downside protection, a put spread at $185 ($NVDA20260102P185) and $170 ($NVDA20260102P170) could hedge against a pullback.

Volatility on the Horizon

The coming weeks will test whether NVDA can sustain its breakout. With AI spending expected to reaccelerate in 2026, the $195 level isn’t just a technical hurdle—it’s a psychological threshold for institutional buyers. If the stock closes above $192.50 by January 2nd, look for a surge in call buying at the $200 and $215 strikes. But stay cautious: A failure to hold above $185 would force a reevaluation of the long-term bullish case. For now, the options market and fundamentals are in sync—this is a setup worth watching closely.