Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $195 Bull Call Play Amid AI Deal Hype – Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• Nvidia’s $20B Groq licensing deal fuels call buying at $195–$200 strikes
• Options data shows 0.86 put/call OI imbalance, with 41,041 open contracts at $195 call
• Regulatory risks in Asia and $160 put OI hint at hedging needs

Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market is pricing in a short-term bullish breakout, with heavy call open interest at key strikes and technical indicators aligning with a potential push above $192.29. But don’t ignore the shadows—regulatory headwinds and a 30D support level at $180.54 mean this trade isn’t all fireworks. Let’s break it down.

Bull Call Overload at $195, But Puts at $160 Tell a Cautionary Tale

The options chain is screaming: "Buy calls at $195 and $200!" With 41,041 open contracts at the $195 strike (this Friday’s expiration) and 71,743 at $192.5 for next Friday, the market is betting on a post-Groq deal pop. That’s not just noise—it’s a crowd of traders stacking up for a potential 2.8% move above current levels.

But here’s the twist: the $160 put strike has 52,267 open contracts, the largest put OI on the chain. It’s like a safety net for those who think the regulatory drama in Asia could drag shares down. And don’t sleep on the block trades—26,000 calls bought at $175 (NVDA20250919C175) in late September suggest big players were already positioning for this AI rally long before the Groq news.

Groq Deal Hype vs. Real-World Risks: A Balancing Act

The Groq acquisition is a textbook "win," right? Licensing cutting-edge AI inference tech and nabbing Groq’s leadership team? Check. But here’s the catch: D.A. Davidson’s analysts are scratching their heads. They’re asking, "Why pay $20B for a licensing deal when Groq’s chips can’t handle large-scale AI models?" That skepticism isn’t in the options data yet.

Meanwhile, the Megaspeed International investigation looms like a storm cloud. If U.S. regulators crack down harder on chip exports to China, NVDA’s 100D moving average at $182.65 could become a battleground. Retail traders might be focused on the $245 price target from Rosenblatt, but don’t forget—this stock’s Bollinger Bands show a tight range between $171 and $190. A breakout needs room to breathe.

Trade Ideas: Call Ladders and Strategic Puts

For the bold: Buy the NVDA20260102C1925 call (next Friday’s $192.5 strike). Why? It’s the most liquid next-week call, sitting just below the intraday high of $192.29. If NVDA holds above its 30D support at $180.54, this contract could ride the RSI momentum (currently at 56.08) toward $200.

For the cautious: Sell the NVDA20260102P185 put to collect premium. With 16,752 open contracts at that strike, it’s a natural magnet for hedgers. If shares dip toward the 200D support at $179.98, you’ll have insurance without overpaying.

Stock players: Consider entry near $189.61 (today’s intraday low) with a tight stop below $188.61. The MACD histogram at +1.35 suggests momentum is still trending up, and the 100D/200D convergence at $182.65 could act as a psychological floor.

Volatility on the Horizon: Bullish Trends With a Side of Caution

Nvidia’s options market is a chessboard of bullish bets and defensive plays. The Groq deal gives bulls a reason to run, but the regulatory risks and mixed analyst takes mean this isn’t a straight-line trade. Keep an eye on the $195 call wall—once that’s cleared, the $200 level could become a new magnet. And if the 30D support at $180.54 breaks? That $160 put might suddenly look like a genius move.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade for those who believe AI’s next phase will outpace geopolitical noise. But always, always hedge. Even the best bulls need a parachute.