Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $190 Bullish Bias: Here’s How to Play the AI Megatrend

• Nvidia’s call open interest peaks at $190 and $195 strikes, with 92,496 and 97,578 contracts respectively.
• Block trades show 14,098 shares of NVDA20260123C190 sold, hinting at institutional caution above $190.
• Analysts from Jefferies and Oppenheimer raised price targets to $275, citing AI-driven demand and undervaluation.

Here’s the core insight: Nvidia’s options market is painting a clear picture of a bullish bias, with heavy call open interest clustered near $190 and $195. The stock’s 0.46% intraday gain and RSI hovering near 46.7 suggest it’s testing key support/resistance levels as it chases AI-driven momentum. While the long-term trend remains up, today’s data shows a tug-of-war between bulls eyeing a breakout and bears hedging near-term volatility.

Bullish Pressure at $190–$195, But Watch for Institutional Moves

The options chain is telling a story of conviction. For this Friday’s expiration, call open interest spikes at $190 (92,496 contracts) and $195 (97,578 contracts), while the $200 strike sees 164,632 contracts. That’s not just noise—it’s a sign that market participants expect a push above $190. The MACD histogram (-0.15) and RSI (46.7) hint at a potential rebound from oversold territory, but the 30D Bollinger Band upper limit at $195.15 could act as a ceiling if volume cools.

But here’s the catch: block trades on the $190 call (NVDA20260123C190) show 14,098 shares sold and 8,058 more later in the day. That’s not typical retail activity—it’s institutional players locking in premium or hedging a short position. If the stock breaks $190, those sellers could force a pullback. Conversely, the $185 put (OI: 25,747) for next Friday’s expiration suggests some are hedging a dip to the 30D support at $184.65.

News Flow: AI Momentum Confirms Options Sentiment

The recent analyst upgrades aren’t just feel-good stories—they’re actionable. Jefferies’ $275 price target and Oppenheimer’s “AI castle on the hill” analogy align with the call-heavy options data. TSMC’s confirmation of sustained AI demand (especially for Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra and Rubin systems) adds credibility to the bullish case. But don’t ignore the risks: a 25% tariff on advanced semiconductors and OpenAI’s Cerebras partnership could create short-term headwinds. That’s why the $190 call block trades matter—they’re a warning sign if the stock can’t sustain a move above that level.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Hedging

For options traders: Buy NVDA20260123C190 calls at $190 if the stock closes above $190.50 today. The strike is just below the 30D upper Bollinger Band ($195.15), and a breakout could trigger a rally toward $195. For a safer play, consider a bull call spread: buy NVDA20260123C190 and sell NVDA20260123C195 to cap risk while capitalizing on the $190–$195 price target.

Stock traders: Enter long near $187.90 if the price holds above the 30D support at $184.65. A break above $190.44 (today’s high) could target $195.15. If the stock dips to $185, consider buying the NVDA20260123P185 puts to hedge a rebound.

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for Nvidia’s AI-Driven Ascent

The next 48 hours will be critical. If Nvidia closes above $190, the $195–$200 call strikes could see explosive volume. But if block traders succeed in capping the move, watch for a pullback to test the 200D moving average at $163.68—a long shot but not impossible. Either way, the options market and news flow suggest this is a stock in control of its narrative. For traders, the key is to align with the $190–$195 sweet spot while keeping a tight stop below $185.