Nvidia (NVDA) Options Signal $180 Call Dominance: Breakout Setup or Overbought Trap?

• NVDA surges 2.7% to $178.87, trading near 30-day moving average resistance at $182.9.
• Options data shows 95,683 open interest at the $180 call (this Friday’s expiry) — a 14% edge over next strike.
• Block traders just bought 26,000 NVDA20250919C175 calls, signaling long-term bullish conviction.

Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market is pricing in a high-probability breakout above $180, but technicals hint at a tug-of-war between short-term bears and long-term bulls. Let’s break down why this $179 stock could either rocket to $190 or face a sharp correction — and how to position for either outcome.

The $180 Call Wall: A Bullish Bet or a Crowded Trade?

The options chain tells a story of conviction. For Friday expiry (2025-12-19), the $180 call has 95,683 open contracts — nearly double the $185 strike (66,358). This isn’t just noise: it’s a price level where institutional money is stacking up. Combine that with the $175 put open interest (53,916) and you get a classic “bull trap” setup.

But wait — the MACD (-3.05) and RSI (46.18) aren’t screaming overbought. The stock is actually trading below its 30-day moving average ($182.9) and just brushed the upper Bollinger Band ($187.2). That means the $180 call wall could either act as a catalyst for a breakout or a magnet for short-sellers if the stock falters.

Don’t ignore the block trades either. The 26,000 NVDA20250919C175 calls bought for $7.6M suggest big players are hedging a long-term bet. If the Trump administration’s H200 chip approval (see below) gets the green light, these calls could pay off handsomely. But if the stock dips below $176.35 (today’s low), the $160 put wall (52,510 OI next Friday) might trigger a defensive rally.

News Flow: Chip Approval Drama and Billionaire Bets

The U.S. review of H200 chip sales to China is a wild card. If approved, it could turbocharge demand for Nvidia’s AI hardware — but the 25% fee might cap near-term margins. Bernstein’s “Outperform” call ($275 target) and Tigress’s $350 price tag are bold, but Coatue’s 14% stake reduction (to Alphabet) adds caution.

Here’s the rub: options traders are pricing in optimism, but fundamentals aren’t fully aligned. The stock’s 25x forward P/E is cheap for a $1.7T market cap, but AI competition from AMD and Intel looms. The key is whether the chip approval news turns into a catalyst or a letdown.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For the aggressive: Buy the NVDA20251226C180 call (strike $180, expiry Dec 26) if NVDA closes above $180 today. With 64,028 open contracts, this is the most liquid near-term play. Target $185 for 2.8% gains; cut if it dips below $178.

For the cautious: Buy the NVDA20251226P160 put (strike $160) as insurance. If the stock gaps down tomorrow (unlikely but possible), this 52,510 OI put could hedge a 5% drop.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $179.66 (middle Bollinger Band) with a stop at $174.14 (previous close). If it breaks $180.7 (intraday high), target $185. But if RSI dips below 40, tighten stops — the 200-day MA at $157.21 is a long way down.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

The next 72 hours will be critical. If the Commerce Department approves the H200 license, NVDA could gap up past $185 — but a delay or rejection might send it testing the $172.12 lower Bollinger Band. Either way, the $180 call wall and block trades suggest options traders are pricing in a directional move.

Your call: Ride the bulls with the $180 call, or play it safe with the $160 put. Just don’t ignore the data — this isn’t a stock that trades in straight lines.