Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap, Bitcoin Correlation Weakens

Nvidia's stock has reached an unprecedented high, with its market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion. This milestone has sparked discussions about the relationship between Big Tech and Bitcoin, as investors and analysts debate whether Bitcoin is still influenced by the tech sector's performance or if it is now charting its own course.

Nvidia's shares hit a record high of $164.32, making it the first company to achieve a $4 trillion market cap. This surge is driven by the high demand for AI chips, with investors viewing Nvidia as a cornerstone of the ongoing AI revolution. The company's valuation is comparable to the GDP of some of the world's largest economies, underscoring the magnitude of the AI boom.

For most of 2024 and the start of 2025, Bitcoin and Nvidia's stock prices moved in tandem, with correlation factors as high as 0.80. This strong correlation reflected a broader "risk-on" environment where investments flowed into both crypto and AI stocks as symbols of growth and innovation. However, recent data indicates that this correlation is weakening. While the three-month average correlation remains at 0.69, newer figures have dropped to around 0.36, suggesting a decoupling as investor interests shift elsewhere.

Bitcoin's new all-time high of over $111,900 coincided with Nvidia's $4 trillion market cap, but analysts warn that this may be due to overall market enthusiasm rather than a sustained trend. The rolling 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nvidia was between 0.45-0.6 in 2023-2024, indicating a moderate positive correlation. However, in the second quarter of 2025, the correlation fell below 0.3, with some weeks showing near-zero or even negative readings as Bitcoin lagged behind Nvidia's upward trajectory.

A leading digital asset strategist noted that while Nvidia's rally to $4 trillion may have boosted Bitcoin, the correlation is diminishing as macroeconomic factors and crypto-specific events take precedence. The changing dynamics between Nvidia and Bitcoin reflect different market drivers. Nvidia's surge is fueled by AI demand and enterprise tech investment, while Bitcoin's price movements are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty and crypto-specific developments.

As AI stocks become more crowded, investors are reallocating funds, but Bitcoin is now moving more independently based on its own fundamentals, such as halving cycles and regulatory news, rather than following Big Tech momentum. This shift indicates that Bitcoin is decoupling from the tech rally and establishing its own path.

Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market has indirect effects on the crypto mining industry. The high demand for AI chips is leading semiconductor manufacturers to prioritize AI chip orders, which restricts the supply chain for Bitcoin mining devices. This can result in increased costs and longer lead times for ASIC miners, affecting their profitability. Additionally, geopolitical factors such as tariffs and trade tensions are causing top ASIC manufacturers to set up production in the US, reshaping the global mining supply chain and increasing miner expenses. However, mining operators are leveraging AI-driven analytics to optimize operations and supply chains, with blockchain providing transparency and traceability of hardware origins.

Nvidia's $4 trillion milestone highlights the strength of the AI bubble, but the era of Bitcoin keeping pace with Big Tech is likely over. As macroeconomic dynamics and crypto-native forces become more prominent, investors should expect a less direct and more uncertain alignment between the leading AI chipmaker and the digital currency.