Nvidia Gears Up for Q4 Print; Recent Forecast Changes from Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings on Wednesday, February 26, 2025, after market close. The chipmaker is expected to post another quarterly sales record on strong demand for its advanced chips, with analysts widely bullish on the AI chipmaker's stock. All but one of the 18 analysts covering the stock tracked by Visible Alpha have issued “buy” or equivalent ratings, with one analyst giving the stock a “hold” rating. Their consensus price target of about $175 would imply roughly 38% upside from Tuesday's intraday price.



Key factors driving analysts' optimism include:

1. Booming demand for advanced chips: Wedbush and Oppenheimer analysts suggested that the company's advanced chips, as Big Tech firms ramp up spending on AI infrastructure, could lead to another strong quarter.
2. Record-breaking revenue and earnings: Nvidia is projected to post record quarterly revenue of $38.34 billion, up 73% year-over-year, and net income of $21.1 billion, from $12.84 billion a year earlier.
3. Supply chain improvements: UBS analysts noted that supply chain improvements could mean higher sales of Nvidia's Blackwell line, nearly doubling their estimate for Blackwell's contribution to fourth-quarter revenue to $9 billion.
4. Competition in the AI race: Oppenheimer indicated that the rapid rise of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek could ultimately prove "positive" for the chipmaker, as competition pushes Nvidia's American clients to step up their efforts in the AI race instead of pulling back.



However, there are some cautionary notes:

1. Potential future demand concerns: Recent news highlighting that a Chinese research lab, DeepSeek, has developed methods to train competitive AI models with less computing power has led to a 11% drop in stock price from its early January 2025 high. Analysts believe the impact is mitigated by increased inference workloads and client spending.
2. Volatility risk: Given the high expectations, the stock could see significant movement post-earnings. If results align with or exceed the $38.32 billion revenue, the stock might surge. However, if guidance for FY2026 disappoints or if there are supply chain issues, there could be volatility.

In conclusion, investors should anticipate a robust earnings report for Nvidia on February 26, 2025, with revenue likely around $38.32 billion, driven by strong AI demand and client investments. While there are concerns about potential future competition, short-term performance appears solid, and the market's bullish outlook suggests potential upside, though volatility remains a risk.