Nvidia's Earnings on August 27, 2025: What History and Guidance Tell Us About the Stock's Next Move

Nvidia's upcoming earnings report on August 27, 2025, has become a pivotal event for investors navigating the AI-driven market. The company's historical pattern of “beat-and-raise” earnings, combined with its strategic moves around the H20 chip and Q3 guidance, offers a compelling case for assessing whether now is the time to act before or after the report.

Historical Beat-and-Raise: A Recipe for Growth

Nvidia's earnings performance since 2020 has been nothing short of extraordinary. From a 2020 EPS of $0.11 to a 2025 EPS of $2.94—a 1,572% surge—the company has consistently outperformed expectations. Its quarterly beats, such as the Q1 2025 EPS of $0.89 (9% above estimates) and Q4 2025's 82% year-over-year revenue jump, have cemented its reputation as a growth engine. This pattern has historically driven its stock higher, with the market rewarding its ability to scale AI infrastructure demand.

Q3 Guidance: A Deceleration, Not a Collapse

Analysts project Q3 2025 revenue of $52.7 billion, a 50% year-over-year increase. While this represents a slowdown from the 69% growth in Q1 2025, it remains robust for a $4 trillion company. The guidance hinges on two critical factors:
1. Blackwell's Ramp: The Blackwell GPU line, which accounted for 70% of data center revenue in Q1 2025, is expected to drive further adoption. With Blackwell Ultra set to ship in H2 2025, the platform's performance gains (e.g., 2.2x faster LLM training in MLPerf) position it as a long-term growth catalyst.
2. H20 Chip Uncertainty: The resumption of H20 shipments to China could add $2–$3 billion in revenue, but Nvidia has opted to exclude it from guidance due to regulatory risks. This conservative approach may understate potential upside, but it also signals prudence in a politically charged environment.

The H20 Dilemma: Risk vs. Reward

The H20 chip's return to China is a double-edged sword. While it could unlock $8 billion in revenue, the 15% revenue-sharing agreement with the U.S. government and China's push for domestic alternatives create uncertainty. Investors must weigh whether this exclusion from guidance is a temporary drag or a strategic move to avoid overpromising. The development of a China-tailored B30A chip (based on Blackwell) suggests Nvidia is hedging its bets, but regulatory delays could dampen near-term growth.

Broader Market Implications

Nvidia's influence extends beyond its own stock. As a 14.4% weight in the Nasdaq-100 and a 7.5% component of the S&P 500, its earnings report could sway the entire AI trade. A “beat and raise” scenario would likely reinforce investor optimism, while a miss could trigger a reevaluation of AI valuations. The recent Q3 2025 results—$35.1 billion in revenue, with data center revenue up 112% year-over-year—underscore its dominance, but the market will scrutinize whether this momentum is sustainable.

Is Now the Time to Act?

Pre-Report Strategy: Historically, Nvidia's stock has rallied ahead of earnings due to its strong guidance. If investors believe the company will exceed the $52.7 billion Q3 target and provide bullish Blackwell updates, entering positions before the report could capitalize on pre-earnings optimism.
Post-Report Strategy: A post-earnings approach allows investors to react to concrete data. A beat-and-raise scenario could justify a long-term hold, while a weaker report might present a buying opportunity if fundamentals remain intact. However, the risk of volatility around the August 27 date is significant.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Play

Nvidia's earnings report on August 27, 2025, is a critical inflection point. The company's historical beat-and-raise pattern, combined with its leadership in AI infrastructure, suggests a strong likelihood of another positive surprise. While the H20 chip's regulatory challenges introduce near-term uncertainty, the long-term trajectory—driven by Blackwell, robotics, and global AI adoption—remains intact. For investors with a high-risk tolerance, the pre-report window offers a chance to position for a potential rally. For others, waiting for the report's outcome may provide a clearer path forward.

In the end, Nvidia's ability to navigate geopolitical headwinds while maintaining its technological edge will determine whether this is a “buy the rumor” or “sell the news” scenario. For now, the data leans toward confidence.