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NVIDIA's Earning Will Be Released Next Week, And Wall Street Professionals See a 120% Opportunity

Wallstreet InsightFriday, May 23, 2025 7:22 am ET

1min read

Artificial intelligence chip manufacturing giant NVIDIA is set to release its fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings report after the U.S. market closes on May 28. According to media-tracked options traders' predictions, the stock's potential upside or downside limit the following day (May 29) could be as high as 7.4%.

Data shows that over the past eight quarters, NVIDIA's stock price has experienced an average intraday volatility of 11.3% on the day following the earnings release.

In February of this year, NVIDIA's stock fell by 8.5% after reporting its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter results. Although the earnings report exceeded Wall Street's expectations, the chipmaker's stock suffered a drop of over 8% the next day due to its weaker-than-expected gross margin outlook for the new quarter.

Additionally, despite the significant average volatility during earnings seasons, investors holding NVIDIA stock have still reaped substantial gains. Media data indicates that if NVIDIA shareholders bought the stock before the earnings release and held it for 12 months, their median return would be close to 120%.

Over the past year, NVIDIA's stock has experienced a turbulent period, partly due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence in China and the ever-changing trade policies of the Trump administration.

NVIDIA's stock had a tough start to 2025. Earlier, after Chinese AI startup DeepSeek launched a powerful and cost-effective AI model, doubts arose about whether the massive spending on AI infrastructure by big tech companies was justified. Signs that Microsoft, one of NVIDIA's largest customers, might slow its investments in AI data centers further fueled concerns.

Moreover, the trade war initiated by President Trump after taking office, along with global retaliatory tariff threats, also weighed on the stock.

This week, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, speaking at the COMPUTEX 2025 exhibition in Taipei, China, stated that U.S. export controls on AI chips to China have been "a failure," as they not only failed to halt China's independent progress in the chip sector but also cost U.S. companies billions in lost sales.

Currently, Wall Street analysts expect NVIDIA's fiscal 2026 first-quarter (ended April) revenue and profits to grow significantly, though they also anticipate a continued slowdown in growth.

Specifically, analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast NVIDIA's first-quarter revenue to rise more than 66% to $43.3 billion, while adjusted earnings per share are expected to surge 44% to $0.88. In contrast, in the first quarter of last year, NVIDIA's revenue grew by 262%, and earnings per share jumped by 461%.

Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate shows that over the past 30 days, analysts' consensus EPS forecast for NVIDIA has slightly declined, from $0.88 to $0.87, while the second-quarter estimate has dropped from $0.99 to $0.98.

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