Nvidia Backstop, Mega Deals—Can CRWV Reignite the AI Trade Tonight?

CoreWeave (CRWV) sits at the bullseye of the AI-infrastructure story: a “neo-cloud” purpose-built to deliver state-of-the-art GPU capacity for training and— increasingly—high-throughput inference. The company is a pure lever on the data-center buildout cycle, scaling power, clusters, and capital faster than most incumbents. That’s why tonight's print matters: it’s a referendum on whether demand, bookings, and capacity are still outrunning financing costs and execution risk after a sharp sector pullback.

Expectations heading into the call are straightforward: revenue around the prior guide of $1.26–$1.30 billion for Q3, with adjusted operating income in the $160–$190 million range. The Street will also parse interest expense ($350–$390 million guided for Q3) and CapEx cadence ($20–$23 billion for 2025, with a Q4 ramp). The top line is capacity-gated, not demand-gated, so investors will focus less on quarterly EPS and more on the forward indicators that actually move the stock: backlog/RPO growth, powered-shell activations, and the timing of new clusters.

Primary watch items for analysts • Backlog/RPO trajectory: Q2 revenue backlog was $30.1 billion (up 86% y/y and doubled YTD). Since then, a string of deals (Nvidia, Meta, OpenAI expansions) and index inclusion headlines suggest the potential for backlog to step up toward the mid-$50 billions as contracts get booked. Any explicit backlog update will be the key line of the release. • Capacity and power: Active power was ~470 MW exiting Q2 with a plan to exceed 900 MW by year-end; contracted power reached ~2.2 GW. Management commentary on powered-shell availability (the current choke point) and site timelines will drive forward revenue visibility. • Mix shift to inference: Management has flagged rising inference workloads (the monetization phase of AI). Any color on utilization patterns and pricing for inference vs. training would be a positive datapoint for durability. • Customer concentration and duration: Microsoft was ~62% of 2024 revenue per the S-1. Street checks expect diversification with hyperscaler expansions and 5–6-year contracts; the mix of top three customers and “percent of RPO from MSFT” will be scrutinized. • Cost of capital: Since IPO, CRWV has tapped multiple debt markets and pioneered secured GPU financing; updates on spreads, maturities, and vendor financing (and how these flow through interest expense) matter for the free-cash-flow path.

Recent deal flow underscores the “demand > supply” narrative. Nvidia executed a new $6.3 billion capacity order under the 2023 MSA, including a clause to purchase any unsold capacity through April 2032—effectively a downside backstop that de-risks CRWV’s buildouts. Vast Data announced a $1.17 billion commercial agreement with CoreWeave, naming Vast the primary data platform for CRWV’s AI cloud—helpful for differentiating storage economics and performance. On top of that, multiple sell-side previews cite new or expanded arrangements with OpenAI and Meta, and some expect ~85% q/q backlog growth tied to those ramps (and to Nvidia’s Blackwell cycle).

The one big wrinkle is M&A. CoreWeave’s proposed acquisition of Core Scientific (CORZ) was terminated after CORZ shareholders failed to approve the merger. Strategically, verticalization would have delivered scale (up to ~1.3 GW owned, plus expansion potential) and modeled ~$500 million run-rate cost savings by 2027 while eliminating large lease liabilities. Without CORZ, near-term execution risk rises: CRWV must secure alternative powered shells and keep the deployment cadence intact. Management says the commercial partnership with CORZ continues and that strategic M&A remains on the table, but the Street will want specifics on how any 2026–2027 capacity plan is backfilled.

A quick look back at last quarter: Q2 revenue rose 207% y/y to ~$1.2 billion, adjusted operating income hit ~$200 million (16% margin), adjusted EBITDA was ~$753 million (≈62% margin), and backlog reached $30.1 billion. Management raised 2025 revenue guidance to $5.15–$5.35 billion, kept CapEx at $20–$23 billion, and guided interest costs higher as debt funds the scale-out. Importantly, leadership emphasized that growth remains capacity-constrained and highlighted progress both “up the stack” (Weights & Biases acquisition, Mission Control automation) and “down the stack” (data-center projects in Pennsylvania and New Jersey), all aimed at compressing time from build to revenue.

Positioning and sentiment coming into the print are mixed. The stock ran to ~$150 in early October but has since fallen roughly 30%, hovering just above ~$100 as the AI trade lost steam and the CORZ saga raised questions about owned vs. leased infrastructure. That drawdown resets expectations—and the bar to clear may actually be bookings, not revenue. Any evidence of sustained pricing for “state-of-the-art” infrastructure, plus a firm schedule for new megawatts, could re-ignite the bull case.

Valuation at these levels is no longer nosebleed but still growth-class. Using the updated 2025 revenue guide (~$5.2 billion midpoint), the price-to-sales multiple has compressed from roughly ~11x at ~$130–$135 to an estimated ~7–8x near ~$100 (directionally, given market cap and cash/debt dynamics). Peers and proxies are all over the map—GPU suppliers (NVDA) trade at materially higher sales multiples on lower growth, while early-stage GPUaaS players can trade higher on story value but with greater execution risk. The practical takeaway: if backlog steps up and capacity activations stay on schedule, CRWV’s revenue path can grow into the multiple; if financing costs or powered-shell bottlenecks slip, multiple support gets tested.

Bottom line for tonight: watch the bookings tape (backlog/RPO), the capacity timeline (MW online/contracted), and the cash-cost equation (interest expense, vendor financing, bond markets). Add in updates on the Nvidia backstop, Vast Data rollout, hyperscaler/customer diversification, and any alternative plan to the CORZ capacity that just walked. If CoreWeave proves it can keep adding high-duration, high-quality backlog while shrinking the build-to-revenue lag, the stock has room to re-rate—even in a choppier AI tape. If not, we’ll be reminded that scaling the “AI cloud” is as much an infrastructure and capital game as it is a growth story.