Nvidia and Apple Stocks: A Test of Resilience in Trump’s Tariff Turmoil
32min read The escalating U.S.-China trade war under President Trump’s administration has thrust tech giants Apple and Nvidia into the center of a geopolitical and economic firestorm. With tariff policies reshaping global supply chains and investor sentiment, both companies are navigating unprecedented uncertainty—yet their fates diverge sharply.
Apple: Overvalued and Overexposed to Tariff Risks
Apple’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing—90% of iPhones are made there—has made it a prime target for tariff volatility. While a last-minute exemption for consumer electronics in late March . briefly restored its $3 trillion market cap, the reprieve was fleeting. The 10% tariff on all U.S. imports imposed April 5, coupled with China’s retaliatory 145% duties, has reignited uncertainty.
The company’s plan to shift 30 million iPhone units annually to India faces daunting hurdles. A CNBC survey reveals that reshoring manufacturing to the U.S. would double costs for 61% of companies, while labor shortages and infrastructure gaps plague alternative production hubs. Apple’s valuation—trading at a 27.4x forward P/E ratio, above the industry average—adds pressure. Analysts warn that persistent tariff threats and China’s retaliatory customs delays could erode margins, making the stock overvalued in a high-risk environment.
Nvidia: Export Bans Spark a $5.5 Billion Hit, but AI Demand Offers a Lifeline
Nvidia, meanwhile, confronts a more immediate crisis: the U.S. Commerce Department’s indefinite ban on exporting its H20 AI chips to China. The restriction, triggered by fears over China’s AI advancements, caused a $5.5 billion charge in Q1 2025, reflecting unsellable inventory and broken contracts. The 13% of Nvidia’s 2024 revenue from China—$17 billion—has now evaporated.
Yet Nvidia’s fate hinges on its dominance in AI infrastructure. Despite the ban, its CUDA software ecosystem and advanced chip design remain unmatched. Analysts note the stock’s undervaluation at 25.18x forward P/E versus the semiconductor industry’s 28.4x multiple. While the near-term pain is clear, the long-term bet on AI’s growth—driven by cloud computing and enterprise spending—could offset the immediate losses.
The Broader Trade War Context
Both companies are caught in a vise of Trump’s aggressive trade policies. The Commerce Department’s probe into semiconductors under national security laws threatens further tariffs, while reshoring efforts face logistical and cost barriers. A TSMC-produced chip—critical for both Apple and Nvidia—could see procurement costs rise by 10% if tariffs materialize, with no alternatives in sight.
The supply chain reshuffle is also a geopolitical gamble. While Apple experiments with India, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang lobbied the Trump administration with a $500 billion pledge to build U.S. supercomputers—a move that highlights the strategic stakes.
Conclusion: Nvidia’s Edge in an AI-Driven World
Investors must weigh near-term turbulence against long-term trends. Apple’s overvaluation and supply chain fragility—exacerbated by its 27.4x P/E and reliance on a single manufacturing base—make it vulnerable to further tariff shocks. Nvidia, despite the $5.5 billion charge and export bans, benefits from its AI leadership and undervalued stock.
The data speaks clearly: while Apple’s valuation and geopolitical risks tilt its risk-reward balance unfavorably, Nvidia’s niche in the AI revolution positions it to capitalize on demand even amid restrictions. Investors seeking resilience in Trump’s tariff wars should look beyond the headlines to the companies best poised to thrive in the tech divide—where Nvidia’s AI edge, for all its current pain, offers a stronger foundation.
