NVIDIA’s $29.35B Volume (2nd in Ranking) Awaits Earnings Report: 6.4% Swing Looms as Analysts Target $203.38, China Sales Outlook Uncertain

Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.02% on August 25, 2025, with a trading volume of $29.35 billion, ranking second in the day’s market. The stock is set to report Q2 earnings after market close, with analysts anticipating a significant price swing of approximately 6.4% by the week’s end. The outcome could push shares to an all-time high of $191.25 or a mid-July low of $168.41. Nvidia has historically outperformed earnings estimates in 18 of the past 20 quarters, though recent quarters have seen narrower beats. The report will be scrutinized for updates on AI demand and China sales, where export restrictions previously cost the company up to $8 billion in Q2. A recent 15% revenue-sharing agreement with the Trump administration allows resumed H20 chip sales to China, though its impact will not be reflected in this quarter’s results.

Wall Street analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish, with 13 of 14 tracked ratings on Visible Alpha labeling the stock a “Buy.” Average price targets hover around $203.38, 13% above the August 25 closing price. Recent target hikes by Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Wedbush reflect confidence in sustained AI demand and improved China sales visibility. The consensus estimates for Q2 include $46.45 billion in revenue, a 50% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of $1.02. However, the report will exclude H20 chip sales to China due to ongoing export controls, which analysts expect to weigh on short-term results despite long-term optimism about AI infrastructure leadership.

The stock’s performance post-earnings will likely hinge on guidance for Q3, particularly regarding H20 chip sales and broader AI adoption. While Nvidia’s historical earnings beats suggest a strong report, market dynamics such as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors could influence short-term volatility. Analysts highlight the company’s dominant 80-90% share of the AI chip market and upcoming product launches, including the Rubin lineup and China-tailored AI chips, as key growth drivers. Despite near-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive, with most analysts emphasizing Nvidia’s unchallenged positioning in AI infrastructure.

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