NVDA's Record Earnings: The $68B Flow That Moved Bitcoin

NVIDIA posted record quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, a 73% year-over-year surge. The core data center business drove this, with sales climbing 75% to $62.3 billion. The company also beat analyst estimates for both earnings and revenue, and raised its outlook for the next quarter.

Yet the market's reaction was muted, even negative. Despite the strong numbers, NVIDIA's stock fell 5.5% on Thursday. Bitcoin mirrored this volatility, briefly spiking above $70,000 on the news before sinking to about $66,000.

This disconnect signals a shift. For a company that has consistently delivered "blockbusters," even a "very good" report is no longer enough. The broader market's cautious tone, with risk appetite as a headwind, shows investors are looking past the headline beats to underlying concerns about sustainability.

Bitcoin's Price Action: Mirroring the Risk-Off Shift

Bitcoin's price directly mirrored the shift in market sentiment triggered by NVIDIA's earnings. The initial positive reaction to the report caused Bitcoin to shoot above $70,000 for the first time in weeks. This move was a clear echo of the brief stock rally, showing the asset's immediate sensitivity to the AI infrastructure narrative.

That correlation broke as the risk-off tone took hold. When NVIDIA's stock plummeted about 5% on Thursday, Bitcoin sank with it, falling to about $66,000. This synchronized drop with the S&P 500 reinforces that Bitcoin is not a traditional safe haven. Instead, it is acting as a pure risk-on asset, amplifying moves in the broader market.

The setup is clear: Bitcoin's volatility regime is now dictated by the dominant driver of risk appetite. As long as sentiment around AI infrastructure investment remains fragile, Bitcoin will remain highly sensitive to any negative catalyst, leading to whiplash in both directions.

The Counter-Flow: ETF Inflows Provide a Floor

While the risk-off shift pressured Bitcoin after NVIDIA's earnings, a powerful institutional counter-flow emerged. On February 25, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $506.5 million in net inflows, the largest single-day total in three weeks. This massive cash infusion directly reversed a five-week outflow trend, providing a critical floor for prices.

The scale of this institutional capital shift is decisive. The $507 million inflow was led by BlackRock's IBIT, which alone saw $297 million in buying. When combined with the $257.7 million in inflows from the previous day, the two-day total surged past $750 million. This sudden, concentrated buying from regulated vehicles created a tangible liquidity support that helped stabilize the market after the initial drop.

This flow matters because it signals a return of disciplined capital. After weeks of redemptions that fueled doubts, the reversal shows institutional demand is not gone. The fact that all 11 active spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net buying on the day underscores the breadth of this shift. It establishes a potential new baseline, where even amid broader market caution, a steady institutional channel can provide a floor for Bitcoin's price.