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Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market is leaning bullish, with heavy call positioning at key resistance levels and block trades hinting at institutional bets. But the stock’s pullback near Bollinger Bands and political risks demand caution. Let’s break it down.
What the Options Chain Reveals About Market SentimentThe call/put open interest ratio (0.89) isn’t wildly skewed, but the strike distribution tells a story. For this Friday’s expiration, $190 calls (OI: 155K) and $185 calls (OI: 119K) dominate, suggesting traders expect a rebound above $186 (30D support). The $182.5 call (OI: 64.6K) adds intrigue—it’s just below the current price, acting like a floor for short-term buyers.
On the put side, $160 puts (OI: 46.9K) and $175 puts (OI: 40.9K) show hedging activity, but the volume is half that of calls. This imbalance implies conviction in an upside breakout, not a deep correction. The block trade at NVDA20250919C175 (26K contracts bought) reinforces this—big players are locking in exposure ahead of key earnings or product cycles.
News Flow: Cash Bonanza vs. Political HeadwindsNvidia’s $60.6B cash hoard and $100B OpenAI stake scream "growth machine," but the SAFE CHIPS Act introduces a wildcard. If export restrictions hold, China’s AI market—where H200 chips are in demand—could limit upside. Yet the options data assumes continued demand in other regions, especially with CUDA ecosystem expansion. Retail investors might be buying calls not just for growth, but to hedge against a potential cash hoarding backlash.
Actionable Trade Ideas for TodayThe next 72 hours will test Nvidia’s resolve. A break above $186.61 could validate the bullish case, while a drop below $180.91 would invite short-term sellers. The $190 call wall (OI: 60.9K for Dec 12) acts as a gravity point—watch for gamma squeezes if the price clusters there. For now, the data says buy the dip, but keep a weather eye on Washington.

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