NVDA Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Calls at $190–$200 Dominate as China H200 Shipments Loom

• NVDA surges 1.6% to $183.91, trading above its 30D and 200D moving averages.
• Call open interest outpaces puts 9:7, with heavy concentration at $190 and $200 strikes.
• Block trades show $7.7M poured into H200-related calls, signaling institutional confidence.

Here’s the takeaway: NVDA shows clear upside potential. The stock’s break above key moving averages, coupled with a call-heavy options chain and bullish news on China shipments, paints a picture of a market primed for a breakout. Let’s dig into why this matters for traders.

Bullish Imbalance in Options and Whale Moves

The options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. For this Friday’s expirations, calls at $190 (OI: 40,928) and $200 (OI: 28,444) dominate, while puts at $160 (OI: 52,435) offer the only meaningful downside hedge. This suggests a high conviction in a $190+ move by mid-December. The put/call ratio of 0.87 (calls > puts) reinforces this bias.

But it’s the block trades that catch the eye. A $7.7M bet on NVDA20250919C175 (a mid-December call) signals big players are hedging or scaling up ahead of the H200 rollout. Meanwhile, a $2.97M put trade at NVDA20260618P165 hints at long-term positioning for a potential pullback. The message? Near-term bulls are aggressive, but some are hedging for volatility.

China News: Catalyst or Overhyped Hype?

Nvidia’s H200 shipments to China are the elephant in the room. The 40,000–80,000-chip order—plus plans to expand production in Q2 2026—directly ties to AI demand from giants like Alibaba and ByteDance. Analysts like Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon aren’t just bullish; they’re calling for $275+ by year-end. This isn’t just speculative chatter: the stock’s 25x forward P/E still lags the semiconductor index, leaving room for re-rating.

But here’s the catch: regulatory clarity matters. If the 25% export fee or production delays pop up, the $160–$170 puts could see action. Yet the options data shows minimal put buying below $160, implying most traders see this as a temporary hurdle, not a collapse risk.

Actionable Trades for Today

For options traders, the sweet spot is the $190 call expiring next Friday (NVDA20260102C190). With the stock trading at $183.91, this strike offers a 3.3% buffer to breakeven. If NVDA closes above $190 by Jan 2, the reward-to-risk ratio tilts sharply in your favor. For a conservative play, consider a call spread: buy the $190 call and sell the $200 call to reduce cost. Both strikes align with heavy open interest, so liquidity won’t be an issue.

Stock buyers should eye $184 as a key entry. That’s the current price and also the upper Bollinger Band level. A break above $187.23 (the upper band) would validate the bullish case, with targets at $190 (first call-heavy zone) and $200 (next major OI cluster). Stop-loss placement? $179.68 (the middle Bollinger Band) would protect against a short-term reversal.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test this setup. If the H200 news translates to real orders, NVDA could gap higher. But watch for profit-taking around $190—options expirations on Dec 26 and Jan 2 could create short-term noise. For now, the data says this is a stock with momentum, a clear catalyst, and a price that still feels undervalued relative to its AI dominance.

Bottom line: This isn’t a coin flip—it’s a calculated bet on a market leader unlocking new demand. Whether you go long the stock or the $190 call, the key is to act before the crowd piles in. The options market’s already done the math.