NVDA Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential: Calls at $200 Dominate as Rubin AI Hype Fuels Volatility

• NVDA trades at $186.34, up 0.75% with volume surging to 86.8M shares
• Call open interest spikes at $200 strike (171,265 contracts) while puts cluster at $100–$160
• Block trades show whales buying $200 puts and $190 calls ahead of Jan 16 expiry

Here’s the takeaway: NVDA’s options market is pricing in a high-probability upside breakout. The stock sits just below its 30-day moving average of $183.22 but is being pulled upward by massive call open interest at the $200 level. With Rubin AI’s 90% cost cuts and China’s potential H200 approval in play, this isn’t just a short-term pop—it’s a structural shift in market positioning.

The Call/Put Imbalance and Whale Moves Painting a Bullish Picture

Let’s start with the numbers: call open interest totals 9.4M contracts vs. 8.4M puts, giving a put/call ratio of 0.89. That’s not extreme, but the concentration at specific strikes tells a story. For Friday’s expiry (Jan 16), $200 calls lead with 171,265 open contracts—a level that could act as a self-fulfilling prophecy if big money is hedging a breakout. Meanwhile, $100 puts (102,780 OI) suggest downside protection is being bought, possibly by long-term holders wary of regulatory risks.

The block trades add intrigue. A $1.575M sale of 2,500 puts at $180 expiring Feb 20 hints at short-term bearish positioning, but the $1.23M purchase of 2,000 $190 calls (expiring Feb 20) screams conviction. And don’t ignore the $1.2M buy of 990 $200 puts expiring this Friday—a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” hedge ahead of earnings or product updates.

Why the Market Is Ignoring the China H200 Headlines

Nvidia’s Q3 blowout ($57B revenue) and Rubin AI’s early delivery have traders shrugging off the “special circumstances” H200 restrictions. The stock hit a new high minutes after the China news, proving investor focus has shifted to the $50B China opportunity if restrictions ease. With Jensen Huang’s roadmap now six months ahead of schedule and Deutsche Telekom’s $1.15B AI factory partnership, the narrative is about execution, not regulatory noise.

Actionable Trade Ideas for Today

For options traders, the most compelling setup is the NVDA20260123C200 call (expiring Friday). With the stock trading at $186.34 and Bollinger Bands showing the upper band at $195.70, a break above $188.11 (today’s high) could trigger a rush to these calls. If you’re bullish but cautious, consider a call spread: buy the $190 call (OI: 18,928) and sell the $200 call to cap risk while capitalizing on the momentum.

For stock traders, the key levels are $185.04 (30D support) and $183.41 (intraday low). If the price holds above $185, target a move to $195—the upper Bollinger Band. A breakdown below $183.41 would test the 200D support at $179.98, but given the call open interest, I’d expect a rebound before that.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

The next 72 hours will be critical. If the $200 call strike sees heavy gamma squeezes by Friday’s expiry, we could see a parabolic move. Conversely, a failure to hold above $184.65 (30D support) might trigger the puts at $180–$160. Either way, NVDA is in a high-volatility phase—the question is whether the bulls can push through the $200 psychological barrier before the Rubin AI rollout in Q1 2026.