NVDA Options Signal Bullish Bet: $190 Call OI Surge and Block Buys Point to Breakout Potential

• NVDA trades at $181.84, down 0.84% from $183.38, with Bollinger Bands squeezing between $172.81 and $196.72.
• Options market shows 1.1M call open interest vs. 982K puts, with heavy call OI at $190 and $185 strikes.
• Block trades bought 26,000 NVDA20250919C175 calls, hinting at institutional bullishness ahead of Q4 earnings.

Here’s the takeaway: NVDA’s options market is pricing in a strong upside bias, with heavy call buying at key resistance levels and block trades amplifying the case for a breakout above $190. While technicals show mixed signals, the balance of power tilts toward bulls—if volume holds.

Bullish Pressure in the Options Chain: Calls vs. Puts at a Glance

The options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. For Friday’s expiration, 155,421 calls at the $190 strike (NVDA20251205C190) and 118,920 at $185 (NVDA20251205C185) dominate open interest. That’s not just noise: it’s a vote of confidence from options traders who expect NVDA to reclaim its 52-week high of $196.72.

But here’s the twist: the put/call ratio of 0.89 (calls > puts) isn’t just bullish—it’s aggressively so. The largest put OI at $160 (NVDA20251205P160) with 46,880 contracts suggests a floor around $172.81 (lower Bollinger Band), but the lack of near-term panic selling implies downside risk is limited.

Block trades add fuel. The 26,000-contract NVDA20250919C175 call buy (expiring Sept 19) and the 2,000-contract NVDA20251017C175 (Oct 17) suggest big players are hedging for a Q4 earnings pop. These aren’t random trades—they’re strategic bets on a post-earnings rally.

News Flow: Can $57B Revenue Justify the Call Buying?

Nvidia’s $57B quarterly revenue (up 62% YoY) and 55.8% net margin are the bedrock of this bullish setup. Analysts are penciling in $65B for next quarter, with a $268 price target by 2027. That’s not just optimism—it’s math.

But don’t ignore the China angle. Moore Threads’ 500% IPO pop as "China’s Nvidia" is a reminder: AI demand is global. While it doesn’t directly hurt NVDA, it validates the sector’s momentum. Zacks’ $240–$250 12-month target aligns with the options market’s $190+ focus—this isn’t a short squeeze, it’s a sector play.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Floor

For options traders: Buy-to-open the NVDA20251212C190 (next Friday’s $190 call) at $181.84. If NVDA holds above $182.50 (middle Bollinger Band), this strike could see 20%+ gains. Alternatively, sell the NVDA20251212P180 (next Friday’s $180 put) as a hedge—NVDA’s 200D support at $179.98 is a likely floor.

Stock traders: Buy NVDA near $182.50 if it holds above the 30D support of $186.01. Target $190 first, then $196.72 (Bollinger upper band). If it breaks below $180, exit or hedge with the $180 put (NVDA20251212P180).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Risks

The setup is clear: NVDA is in a bullish sweet spot between strong fundamentals, options positioning, and sector momentum. But don’t ignore the RSI at 46.46—this isn’t a runaway train yet. Watch the $185–$190 range like a hawk. If it breaks out, the $200 call (NVDA20251212C200) becomes a moonshot. If it stalls, the $180–$182.50 zone offers a second chance.

Bottom line: This isn’t a gamble—it’s a calculated bet. The options market has already priced in the risk. Now it’s about execution.