NVDA Options Signal $200 Call Dominance: Bullish Breakout or Bearish Trap?

• Nvidia partners with Eli Lilly on $1B AI drug lab using Vera Rubin chips
• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.8965 shows mild bullish bias, but $100 put OI hints at downside caution
• Block trades show 7,200 puts at $180 for Jan 23 expiration—could signal institutional hedging

Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market is locked in a high-stakes tug-of-war between AI euphoria and profit-taking caution. With the stock trading at $186.16, technicals and options data point to a critical juncture—will the $195 resistance hold, or will bears drag it back to the $170s? Let’s break it down.

The OI Chessboard: Calls at $200, Puts at $100

The options chain tells a story of extremes. For Friday’s expiration, the $200 call (OI: 163,665) dwarfs all other strikes, while the $100 put (OI: 102,773) sits as the top bearish bet. This isn’t just bullishness—it’s a bet that NVDA could surge 8% in four days. But here’s the catch: the 30-day support cluster (184.65–185.04) is fraying, and the RSI at 66.9 suggests near-term overextension.

Block trades add intrigue. A 7,200-contract put block at $180 (NVDA20260123P180) for next Friday’s expiration hints big players are hedging against a pullback. Meanwhile, a 15,000-put block at $180 for Feb 20 shows long-term caution. Think of it like a storm: the calls are the thunder (speculative upside), and the puts are the lightning (sudden downdraft risks).

News-Driven Momentum: AI Lab or Overhyped Hype?

The Eli Lilly partnership is a game-changer. $1B over five years for AI-driven drug discovery isn’t just a headline—it’s a revenue stream diversification play. But here’s the rub: the market already priced in much of this. Nvidia’s 30D MA at $183.06 and 200D MA at $162.19 show a 12% gap. If the AI buzz fades, the 200D MA could act like a gravitational pull.

DA Davidson’s Buy rating reinforces conviction, but don’t ignore the puts. The $100 strike (a 41% downside from current price) isn’t just a panic play—it suggests some investors expect a broader tech sector correction. Remember, this is 2026: AI euphoria meets economic reality.

Trade Ideas: Precision Strikes

For options traders, the most compelling setup is the NVDA20260123C200 call expiring next Friday. Why? The $200 level is both a psychological round number and a 7.4% upside target. If the stock breaks above the Bollinger Upper Band ($195.56), this call could see 20%+ gains in three days. Entry: $1.50–$1.70 per contract.

Bearish players might eye the NVDA20260123P180 put block. At $180, the strike sits just below the 30-day support zone. A close below $183.02 (intraday low) would validate this play. For stock buyers, consider entries near $184.65 (30D support) with a tight stop below $183.02. Target: $190–$195 if the Lilly news catalyzes a breakout.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test Nvidia’s resolve. A break above $189.12 (intraday high) could trigger a short-covering rally, while a drop below the 200D MA ($162.19) would invite algorithmic selling. The key is balance: this isn’t just about AI hype—it’s about whether Nvidia can prove its dominance in data centers, autonomous vehicles, and now pharma.

Bottom line: The options market is a divided house. Bulls have the upper hand for now, but don’t sleep through the siren song of those $100 puts. In this game, the best traders aren’t just right about the direction—they’re right about the timing.