NVDA Options Signal $200 Call Contention as Bulls Clash with Bearish Puts: Here’s How to Play the AI Giant’s Volatility

• NVDA trades at $186.11, up 0.68% with volume surging to 66.6M shares—triple its 30-day average.
• Options data shows 163,665 open interest at the $200 call (this Friday’s expiry), while puts at $180 and $100 dominate bearish bets.
• Block trades hint at big money hedging with $180 puts ahead of key expiry dates, as AI partnerships and China demand fuel debate.

Here’s the takeaway: NVDA is caught in a tug-of-war between AI-driven optimism and near-term profit-taking. The stock’s 0.68% intraday gain masks a fragile setup—technical indicators like the MACD and RSI suggest momentum is still bullish, but Bollinger Bands show the price is flirting with overbought territory. The options market tells a clearer story: bulls are stacking up calls at $200, while bears are bracing for a drop to $180. Let’s break it down.

The $200 Call Wall and Bearish Anchors at $180

The options chain is a chessboard. Right now, the $200 call (NVDA20260123C200) has 163,665 open interest for Friday’s expiry—nearly double the next strike. That’s not just noise; it’s a price level where big money is betting on a breakout. Meanwhile, the $180 put (NVDA20260123P180) has 15,821 open interest for next Friday, suggesting institutional players are hedging against a pullback.

But here’s the twist: the 30-day support zone (184.65–185.04) is just 1% below today’s price. If NVDA dips below that, the 200D support (179.98–182.24) could trigger a wave of panic selling. Block trades like the 7,200-lot $180 put (NVDA20260123P180) sold this week hint at big players prepping for that scenario.

News That Could Tip the Scales

NVIDIA’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The $1B Lilly AI lab and $38B AWS deal scream long-term growth, but China’s regulatory pause on chip purchases adds a near-term wildcard. Analysts like Mizuho ($275 target) and Wedbush ($250 target) are still bullish, but the stock’s 1.5% drop last week shows investors aren’t ignoring risks.

The key question: Will the AI hype outweigh China’s uncertainty? The options market is pricing in a 68% chance of staying above $185 (based on the 30D support/resistance). If the Lilly collaboration kicks off trials as planned, that could push the stock toward $200. But a slip below $180 would test the resolve of even the most optimistic bulls.

Actionable Trades for Today’s Volatility

For options traders, the $200 call (NVDA20260123C200) is a high-conviction play if you believe in a breakout above $186.89 (today’s high). The strike is 7.5% out of the money but sits at a psychological threshold—breaking through could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. For a safer bet, consider a risk-reversal strategy: buy the $200 call and sell the $180 put (NVDA20260123P180) to offset premiums.

Stock traders should watch two levels:

• Entry near $184.65 (30D support) if the price dips below today’s open. Target $190 if the 200D moving average (162.19) continues to act as a floor.
• Exit above $186.89 to lock in gains before Friday’s expiry, where heavy call open interest could push the stock higher.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 48 hours will be critical. If NVDA holds above $185, the $200 call wall could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. But a drop below $180 would validate the puts’ bearish case—and force a reevaluation of the AI hype. Either way, the options market is pricing in a binary outcome: a breakout or a breakdown.

This isn’t a stock to watch passively. It’s a high-stakes game of chess where every move matters. And right now, the board is set for a showdown.