NVDA Options Signal $200 Call Contention: Bullish Breakout or Bearish Trap?

• NVDA trades at $185.16, clinging to 30D support at $184.65 while battling Bollinger Upper Band resistance at $195.70.
• Options market shows 1.7M open interest at the $200 call (this Friday’s expiry), 58K at the $360 call, and 102K at the $100 put—hinting at a tug-of-war between cautious bulls and deep-out-the-money hedgers.
• Block trades reveal big players selling 2,500 puts at $180 (Jan 16 expiry) and buying 2,000 calls at $190 (Feb 20 expiry)—a mixed message of defensive positioning and long-term bullishness.

Here’s the kicker: The stock’s 0.12% intraday gain masks a fragile equilibrium. With MACD and RSI hovering near neutral territory, and a put/call ratio of 0.89 (call-heavy), the market is pricing in a breakout—but not without risk. Let’s break down what’s really happening.

"Call Contention at $200: A Battle for Bullish Supremacy"

The $200 call strike is the options market’s fault line. At 7.5% OTM, it’s the most liquid call with 171K open interest (this Friday’s expiry) and another 20K next week. This isn’t just retail FOMO—block traders are buying 2,000 of these calls at $190 (Feb 20 expiry) for $615/share, betting on a post-earnings pop. But don’t ignore the puts: 102K open interest at the $100 put (a 45% OTM strike) suggests institutional hedgers are bracing for a worst-case scenario. The irony? Bulls are stacking up at $200, while bears are hedging at $100—neither side is fully committed.

"News Flow: Growth Hype vs. Overvaluation Warnings"

Nvidia’s Rubin platform and $57B Q3 revenue are fueling the bullish narrative. But Tom Sosnoff’s bearish take—calling NVDA a "fully priced" idea—adds friction. The market’s shrugging off China’s H200 chip restrictions for now, but Sosnoff’s 10%-15% sell-off warning (March–May 2026) isn’t trivial. Here’s the twist: While the news validates long-term AI growth, the options data suggests near-term volatility. Retail traders might be buying calls for a short-term pop, but the block trades hint at a longer game—buying Feb 20 calls at $190 implies patience.

"Actionable Trades: Precision at Key Levels"

For options:

• Bullish Play: Buy NVDA20260123C200 (this Friday’s $200 call) if NVDA breaks above $188.11 (intraday high). Target $195, where 94K open interest exists.
• Bearish Hedge: Sell NVDA20260123P180 (this Friday’s $180 put) if price dips below $184.65 support.
• Long-Term Bet: Buy NVDA20260220C190 (Feb 20 $190 call) at $615/share. This aligns with block trade volume and Rubin’s commercialization timeline.

For stock:

• Entry: Buy NVDA near $184.65 (30D support) with a stop-loss at $183.41 (intraday low).
• Target: $190–$192 if the 200D MA ($162.54) continues to act as a floor.
• Alternative: Short NVDA above $188.11 if it fails to hold the upper Bollinger Band ($195.70), targeting $185.04 (200D resistance).

"Volatility on the Horizon: The $200 Crossroads"

The coming days will test whether NVDA can break free of its 30D support/resistance range ($184.65–$185.04). A close above $188.11 could trigger a rush to the $200 calls, while a drop below $183.41 might force block traders to defend at $180. Either way, the options data tells us the market isn’t unified—bulls are optimistic, but bears are hedging aggressively. This isn’t a clear breakout; it’s a high-stakes chess match. Your move? Stack the odds by targeting the $200 level with tight stops, or play the volatility with a straddle if the 200D MA ($162.54) starts to warp.