NVDA Options Signal $190 Call Battle: Bullish Breakout or Bearish Trap?

• NVDA plunges 2.3% to $181.50 amid China H200 chip restrictions
• Options data shows 172,327 open interest at $190 call (this Friday’s expiry) vs. 69,850 puts at $180
• Block trades hint at $190 call buying and $175 put accumulation ahead of March 2026

Here’s the thing: NVDA’s price action and options flow tell two conflicting stories. The stock is clawing its way down today, but the options market is betting big on a $190 inflection point. Let’s break down what this means for your trade setup.

The $190 Call vs. $180 Put Showdown

Options traders are polarized around two key levels. For this Friday’s expiry, the $190 call (NVDA20260116C190) has 172,327 open interest—nearly double the $180 put’s 69,850. That’s not just noise; it’s a vote of confidence from institutional players who think NVDA could rebound above $190 before expiration.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $180 put (NVDA20260116P180) has 69,850 open interest, and block trades show 900 contracts bought at that strike for next Friday’s expiry. This suggests some big players are hedging against a drop below the 200-day support zone ($179.98–$182.24).

The block trades add intrigue. A 4,000-contract buy of the $190 call (NVDA20260320C190) and a 4,000-contract purchase of the $175 put (NVDA20260320P175) signal long-term positioning. These aren’t day traders—they’re positioning for March 2026, when earnings from TSMC and Microsoft could shake things up.

China Headlines vs. Options Sentiment

The news about H200 chip restrictions is bad, but not terminal. China accounted for $17.1B in annual revenue for Nvidia, but the options market isn’t pricing in a total collapse. The $100 put (NVDA20260116P100) has 102,780 open interest—wildly overpriced for a stock trading at $181.50. That’s fear, not fundamentals.

What’s more telling is the focus on $190 calls. If partners like Microsoft or TSMC report strong AI demand in late January, those calls could ignite. But if China’s restrictions tighten further, the $180 put level becomes critical. The RSI at 54.59 suggests NVDA isn’t in oversold territory yet, so a bounce back above the 30-day MA ($183.51) could trigger short-covering.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Conviction, Puts for Caution

For the aggressive: Buy the NVDA20260123C190 call (next Friday’s expiry) if NVDA closes above $184.41 (middle Bollinger Band). Target: $195 if the stock breaks the 30-day MA. Stop-loss: Below $180.

For the cautious: Buy the NVDA20260123P180 put to hedge against a drop below the 200-day support. This gives you downside protection while the stock tests key levels.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $179.98 (lower end of 200D support) with a target at $195 if the 30D MA holds. Exit if the stock falls below $173.34 (lower Bollinger Band).

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks will test NVDA’s resolve. TSMC’s earnings on Jan 15 and Microsoft’s late-Jan report could either validate the $190 call bets or force a retreat to $170s. The block trades suggest smart money is hedging both outcomes. For retail traders, the key is to stay nimble—use the $190 call as a directional bet but keep a put nearby. This isn’t a binary outcome; it’s a chess match between AI optimism and geopolitical reality.