NVDA Options Signal $190 Bull Play: Call OI Surge and AI Momentum Set Up Breakout Trade

• Nvidia trades at $187.49, up 1.43% on 110M+ volume
• Call OI crush at $190 strike (91,547 contracts) vs. top put at $180 (35,741)
• Put/Call ratio of 0.86 shows bullish bias, but MACD histogram near -0.43 warns of short-term pullback risk

Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia’s options market is pricing in a high-probability $190+ move by Friday, but technicals hint at a volatile path. The AI hype train isn’t slowing down, but traders need to watch support levels like 185.04 before committing.

Bullish OI Clusters and Whale Moves: What’s Cooking at $190?

The options market is laser-focused on $190 as a psychological threshold. For this Friday’s expiration, NVDA20260123C190 has 91,547 open contracts—nearly double the next strike. That’s not just noise: it means smart money is hedging a breakout above Bollinger Bands’ 191.99 upper band. Meanwhile, the top puts at $180 and $185 (35,741 OI) suggest a floor near the 30D support range (184.65–185.04).

Block trades add intrigue. A 3,023-lot sale of NVDA20260320P185 (March 20 exp) for $3.3M implies institutional confidence in the stock staying above $185 through March. But don’t ignore the 5,670-lot sell put trade at NVDA20260220P180—if the stock dips below 186.82 intraday low, that could trigger a cascade of stop-losses.

AI Dominance vs. Margin Risks: Can the Bull Case Hold?

Nvidia’s news flow is a mixed bag. The company’s 90% AI chip dominance and $51.2B data center revenue are tailwinds, but the bear case warning—margins collapsing if AI demand slows—can’t be ignored. The recent $5T market cap milestone shows investors are pricing in 2030’s AI growth today. That’s why the $491 bull case prediction feels baked into options pricing, even if it’s unrealistic.

But here’s the catch: RSI at 47.51 suggests the stock isn’t overbought yet, giving bulls room to push higher. However, the MACD (-0.119) and 47.5 RSI combo warns of a potential consolidation phase. If the AI narrative falters—even temporarily—Nvidia could retest its 200D MA at $165.25.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for ProtectionFor options traders:

• Aggressive play: Buy NVDA20260123C190 (this Friday’s $190 call). If NVDA closes above $190, time decay works in your favor. Exit at 189.6 intraday high if it hits.
• Conservative hedge: Buy NVDA20260130P180 (next Friday’s $180 put). Protects against a drop below 185.04 support while keeping upside open.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $185.04 (30D support) if RSI crosses 50. Target $190–192.5 if Bollinger Bands break.
• Stop-loss below $182.68 (200D MA) to avoid a margin-erosion scenario.

Volatility on the Horizon: Bull Case or Bear Trap?

The next 72 hours will test Nvidia’s resolve. A close above $192.5 would validate the bullish OI buildup, while a dip below $185.04 could trigger a reevaluation of AI’s long-term viability. The key is to stay nimble: use the $190 call as a directional bet, but pair it with the $180 put to cap downside risk. After all, even the most bullish AI forecasts can’t outpace reality if margins start to crumble. Right now, the data says stay long, but don’t bet the farm on a $5T dream.