NVDA Options Signal $190 Bull Call Play as China H200 Deal Fuels Upside Potential

• Current Price: NVDA trades at $183.18, down 0.97% from $184.97 after opening at $184.99
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest dominates at $190 and $185 strikes, with 156,844 and 125,460 contracts respectively
• News Catalyst: U.S.-China H200 chip deal approved, unlocking $25B+ market access for Nvidia

Here’s the core insight: The options market is pricing in a near-term breakout above $190, supported by geopolitical tailwinds and technical indicators showing a bullish divergence. While short-term volatility exists, the data suggests a high-probability trade for bulls who can stomach a 1-2% pullback.Bull Call Accumulation at $190 and $185

The options chain tells a clear story: traders are loading up on calls just above current levels. For Friday’s expiration, the $190 strike (OI: 156,844) and $185 strike (OI: 125,460) dominate call open interest. This isn’t random—those strikes align with the upper Bollinger Band ($193.20) and key resistance levels from late 2024.

But here’s the twist: next Friday’s options show even more intrigue. The $200 strike (OI: 107,278) jumps out as a whale target, with block trades showing 26,000 calls bought at $175 for September 19 expiration. This suggests institutional players are hedging against a multi-week rally, possibly tied to the H200 chip rollout timeline.

Puts Tell a Different Story

Puts are less aggressive, with the $180 strike (OI: 24,729) as the most watched downside level. While the put/call ratio (0.886) favors bullish sentiment, the $155-170 puts shouldn’t be ignored—they represent a 15-20% downside buffer. If NVDA breaks below $180, those puts could ignite a short squeeze.

China H200 News Validates Options Bets

The recent U.S. approval of H200 chip sales to China isn’t just good news—it’s strategic. This deal:

• Restores access to China’s $25B AI market
• Imposes a 25% revenue tax (vs. 15% earlier proposal)
• Positions H200 as six times more powerful than H20

This aligns perfectly with the options data. Chinese tech giants like ByteDance and Alibaba are already queuing for H200s, and Nvidia’s denial of Blackwell smuggling allegations removes a key bearish overhang. The Q3 results—62.5% revenue growth and 65.3% net income growth—add credibility to the bullish case.

Actionable Trade IdeasFor Options Traders:

• Buy NVDA20251219C190 (next Friday’s $190 call): High OI + $183.18 price is 6.5% below strike
• Sell NVDA20251219P180 (Friday’s $180 put): Collect premium while hedging downside

For Stock Investors:

• Entry near $183.18 if price holds above $182.035 intraday low
• Targets: $185 (intraday high), then $190 (key resistance), with $193.20 as a stretch target
• Stop Loss: Below $180 triggers reevaluation; below $179.40 (30D support) = bearish signal

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for NVDA’s Next Move

The next 72 hours will test whether the $190 call buyers are right. If NVDA closes above $185 by Friday, the $190 and $200 calls gain serious momentum. Conversely, a break below $180 would validate the puts and force a rethinking of the bullish thesis. Either way, the China H200 narrative gives this stock asymmetric upside potential—especially if the 25% tax proves temporary rather than permanent.

This isn’t a guaranteed win, but the combination of options flow, technical alignment, and news flow creates a compelling case to lean into the $190 level. As always, keep a tight stop and watch those Bollinger Bands—they’ve been quiet for weeks but could tighten around a breakout any day now.