NVDA Options Signal $180 Call Contention: Bullish Breakout or Bearish Trap?

• NVDA surges 1.5% today, trading at $177.69 amid a short-term bearish engulfing pattern.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $180 and $185 strikes, while puts dominate at $160.
• Block trades reveal a $2.6M call buy at $175, hinting at institutional bullishness ahead of Q4.

Here’s the thing: NVDA’s price action and options flow are locked in a tug-of-war. The stock is clawing its way out of a bearish pattern, but call buyers are piling into strikes just above current levels. If you’re trading this name today, you need to decide whether this is a breakout setup or a fading rally.

The $180 Call Wall: A Battleground for Bulls and Bears

Let’s start with the options chain. This Friday’s data shows the NVDA20251219C180 call has 79,658 open contracts—second only to the $200 strike. Meanwhile, the NVDA20251219P160 put leads puts with 83,889 open contracts. This isn’t just noise: it’s a clear signal that traders are hedging both directions. The put/call ratio (0.908) tilts slightly bullish, but don’t ignore the bearish fundamentals.

The block trade at NVDA20250919C175 (26,000 contracts bought for $7.6M) is telling. Someone with deep pockets is betting on a rebound above $175, which aligns with NVDA’s 200-day moving average ($156) and Bollinger Band support ($174.64). But the MACD (-1.94) and RSI (45) suggest momentum is fading. If the stock can’t hold above $175.03 (today’s intraday low), those call buyers could get crushed.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Nvidia’s open-source AI models are a double-edged sword. On one hand, the Nemotron 3 Nano launch positions the company to compete with Chinese alternatives like DeepSeek. On the other, U.S. states banning Chinese models mean NVDA’s open-source push might not offset lost revenue from export restrictions. Bernstein’s $275 price target and Giverny Capital’s bullish Q3 letter add credibility to the long case—but don’t forget the $5.5B hit from the H20 ban.

Trade Ideas: Precision Entry for Volatility

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy NVDA20251219C180 if NVDA breaks above $178.41 (intraday high). Target $185 if the 30D MA ($186.37) holds.
• Bearish Play: Sell NVDA20251219P160 if price drops below $175.03. Use the 200D MA ($156) as a stop-loss anchor.

For stock traders:

• Long Entry: Consider buying near $175.03 if the 100D MA ($182.33) acts as dynamic support. Target $181.94 (middle Bollinger Band) as a first exit.
• Short Entry: If NVDA closes below $175.02 (previous close), target $165 using the NVDA20251219P165 put (56,452 OI) as a hedge.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test NVDA’s resolve. A close above $181.94 could reignite the $200 call frenzy, while a breakdown below $174.64 would validate the bearish engulfing pattern. Either way, the options market is pricing in a 10% swing by December 19th. This isn’t a stock to watch from the sidelines—it’s a high-stakes chess game where every pip matters.