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Here’s the thing: NVDA’s options market is screaming about a potential breakout. The stock is technically oversold (RSI at 41.4), yet call buyers are piling into strikes 6-10% above current price. Combine that with Evercore’s $352 target and surging China demand for H200 chips, and you’ve got a setup that’s hard to ignore. Let’s break it down.
The $180 Call Wall and Whale MovesThe options chain is packed with tension. This Friday’s $180 call (
) has 81,493 open contracts—nearly triple the nearest put at $175. That’s not just noise; it’s a crowd betting on a $176.70 stock breaking above its 30-day resistance cluster ($186–$187).But here’s the twist: A block trade last week bought 26,000 of the NVDA20250919C175 calls for $296K. That’s a whale hedging or scaling up ahead of Q4. Meanwhile, the $160 put (
) has 85,671 open contracts—like a safety net for a 9% drop. The message? Bulls are ready to push higher, but bears aren’t backing down.China Demand and CUDA’s EdgeThe news flow? Explosive. Eased trade restrictions in China are fueling H200 demand, and Alibaba’s orders alone could strain current production. Then there’s the CUDA tiles update and the SchedMD acquisition—both are moat-strengthening moves.
But here’s the rub: The stock’s 30-day MA at $185.50 is a wall. If
can’t break that, the $174.64 Bollinger Band support becomes critical. The options market’s call-heavy bias suggests traders expect a rebound off that level, but don’t count on it without a fight from bears.Trade Ideas: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Safety NetFor the aggressive: Buy the NVDA20251219C180 calls this Friday if price breaks above $177.49 (today’s high). Target a 10-15% move to $195 by expiration.
For the cautious: Sell the puts next Friday as a covered write. If the stock dips to $160, you’ll own shares at a 9% discount to current price.
Stock players: Consider entry near $175 if price holds above the 200-day MA ($156.33). First target: $185 (30-day MA). Stop below $170 to protect against a breakdown.
Volatility on the HorizonThe next 72 hours will tell a lot. If NVDA closes above $177.50 tonight, the $180 call wall could ignite a short-covering rally. But if it cracks $174.90 (today’s low), watch for a test of the $160 put-heavy zone. Either way, this stock isn’t done making headlines. The AI gold rush isn’t slowing—and neither is the options crowd betting on it.

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