NVDA Options Signal $180–$200 Battle: How to Trade the AI Giant’s Volatility Playbook

• NVDA plunges 2.35% amid China’s H200 chip ban, testing 184.41 Bollinger Band support
• Options market shows 0.89 call-heavy bias, with $190–$200 calls dominating open interest
• Block trades hint at $170 call hedging and $180 put positioning ahead of Friday’s expiry

Here’s the takeaway: Nvidia is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term bearish pressure and long-term AI optimism. The stock’s 2.35% drop today—despite a bullish 200D MA at $162.92—highlights the tension between geopolitical risks and fundamental strength. Let’s break down what the options market and technicals are telling us.

The $180–$200 Options Crossroads: Sentiment vs. Strategy

The options chain is a goldmine of insight. This Friday’s top OTM calls cluster at $190–$200 (OI: 95,911 to 172,327), while puts peak at $180 (OI: 69,850). This suggests a bullish bias above $190 but caution below $180. The put/call ratio of 0.89 (call-heavy) reinforces this, though the $360 call’s 58,154 OI hints at speculative longs chasing the 80% surge prediction.

Block trades add intrigue. A 5,000-lot NVDA20260116C170 call (expiring Friday) and a 6,000-lot NVDA20260220P180 put (expiring in February) signal hedging activity. Big players are likely protecting against a near-term dip while eyeing a rebound. The $170 call’s $6.13M turnover also suggests aggressive bullish bets ahead of the expiry.

China’s H200 Ban: Catalyst or Correction?

The 2% drop today stems from China’s de facto ban on H200 chips, a market that contributed $3B in Q4 revenue. While this is a near-term headwind, the options data isn’t pricing in a $100 collapse. The $180 put OI (69,850) dwarfs the $100 put (102,780), showing defensive positioning rather than panic. Meanwhile, the 80% surge prediction—driven by Blackwell GPU demand—still looms large. The key question: Will AI-driven earnings offset China’s drag?

Actionable Trades: Calls for Conviction, Puts for Protection

For bulls, consider the NVDA20260123C190 call (expiring next Friday). If NVDA breaks above the 30D support/resistance at $184.65, this $190 call could capitalize on a rebound toward the 195.5 Bollinger Band. Entry: $184.65–$185.04. Target: $195–$200. Risk: Below $180 triggers a reevaluation.

For conservative plays, the NVDA20260123P180 put offers downside insurance. With RSI at 54.59 (neutral) and MACD near the signal line, a pullback to the 179.98 200D support could test this strike. Entry: $180.91 (intraday low). Target: $170–$175 if the China risk escalates.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing the AI Equation

The next 48 hours will test NVDA’s resilience. A close above $185.04 could reignite the long-term bullish trend, while a break below $179.98 might force a re-rating of its P/S ratio. The options market is pricing in a $180–$200 range battle, but the real story lies in how China’s regulatory moves and Blackwell demand collide. For now, position yourself with directional calls and defensive puts—the AI king’s throne isn’t empty yet.