NVDA Options Signal $170–$180 Battle: Whale Buys and $200 Call OI Hint at Rebound Setup

• NVDA plunges 3.58% to $171.35, breaking below 30D/100D moving averages at $184.53 and $182.40.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $180–$200 strikes (this Friday’s $180 call OI: 91,320) vs. put OI at $160–$170.
• Block trades reveal 26,000 NVDA20250919C175 calls bought, signaling bullish conviction ahead of Sept expiration.

The Crossroads of Fear and Greed in NVDA’s Options

Here’s the tension: NVDA’s price action screams short-term bearishness, but options traders are hedging both ways. The stock’s 3.58% drop today has it teetering near the $174.52 lower Bollinger Band, while the 0.896 put/call OI ratio (calls dominate) hints at lingering bullish bets. The question isn’t just where it’s going—it’s how fast the market will decide.

The OI Chessboard: Who’s Calling the Shots?

Let’s break down the options battlefield. This Friday’s top OTM calls ($180, $185, $200) have combined OI of 240,465, while puts at $160–$170 have 221,214. That’s a tight standoff. The $200 call OI (93,463) is especially telling—it’s a high-strike bet that only pays off if NVDA rallies 15%+ in three days. But don’t ignore the puts: $160 put OI (84,528) acts like an insurance policy for a $17 drop.

Then there’s the whale activity. The 26,000-lot NVDA20250919C175 block trade ($7.7M notional) screams “I’m buying a call at $175, and I expect it to go higher.” That’s not noise—it’s a signal. But the $160 put OI (84,528) and the $162.5 put block trade (11,124) suggest some big players are bracing for a $160 floor. The stock’s 30D support zone ($179.83–$180.31) is now a distant memory.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Jensen Huang’s warning about fragmented AI regulation adds a layer of uncertainty. If state-by-state rules slow adoption, NVDA’s AI chip sales could stall. But the $1.5B Israel server farm plan and 30%+ 2026 revenue forecasts from analysts show the company isn’t backing down. Google’s TorchTPU project is a wildcard—it could erode NVDA’s CUDA dominance, but the stock’s $37.6B cash hoard gives it room to adapt.

Here’s the rub: The market already priced in some of this. The $225 Q1 2026 target from Peter DiCarlo is a long way off, but today’s $171.35 price is testing whether short-term bearishness will override long-term optimism. If the $160 put OI turns into a liquidity trap, NVDA could gap down. But the $175–$180 call OI suggests a rebound is on the menu.

Trade Ideas: Play the OI Map, Not the Noise

For options traders, the NVDA20251219C180 call (this Friday’s $180 strike) is a high-conviction play. If NVDA bounces off $174.52 support and closes above $178, this 15%+ OTM call could surge. Alternatively, a put spread at $160–$170 (e.g., sell NVDA20251219P170, buy NVDA20251219P160) caps risk while hedging a $160 drop.

Stock traders: Consider entries near $174.52 (lower Bollinger Band) with a tight stop below $171.11. If it holds, target $180.31 (30D support) as a first exit. For the bold, a $175–$177 long entry with a $165 stop could play the whale’s call block trade.

Volatility on the Horizon

NVDA isn’t just a stock—it’s a barometer for AI’s future. The options data and block trades suggest a $160–$200 range battle in the next two weeks. If the $180 call OI turns into a liquidity vacuum, the stock could gap higher. But don’t ignore the $160 puts—they’re a red flag for a potential breakdown. Either way, this is a stock where every 50-cent move feels like a seismic event. Stay nimble, and let the OI map guide your next trade.