NVDA Options Signal $160 Floor, $200 Call Contingency: How to Play the AI Giant's Volatility

• NVDA down 3.5% at $171.50, breaking below 30D MA of $184.53
• $200 calls (OI: 93,463) and $160 puts (OI: 84,528) dominate this Friday's options
• Block trades show 26,000 calls bought at $175 strike for Sept 19 expiry

Here’s the deal: Nvidia’s options market is painting a split-screen picture. While the stock tumbles toward key support, call buyers are hedging for a rebound—and puts are bracing for a deeper slump. Let’s break down what this means for your strategy.

The Options Imbalance: Calls Defend $200, Puts Watch $160

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For Friday expiry, $200 calls (NVDA20251219C200) lead with 93,463 open contracts, nearly double the next strike. This suggests institutional players are hedging against a short-term rebound, likely tied to the $225 price target from analyst Peter DiCarlo. But don’t ignore the puts: $160 puts (NVDA20251219P160) with 84,528 open contracts signal a psychological floor. If the stock breaks below $170.31 (today’s low), those puts could trigger a cascade of selling pressure.

Block trades add intrigue. A 26,000-lot call purchase at the $175 strike (NVDA20250919C175) for Sept expiry hints at long-term bullish positioning. But the $160 put-heavy open interest (84,528) suggests some traders expect a sharper correction—maybe testing Google’s TorchTPU-driven competition narrative.

News vs. Options: AI Hype vs. Reality Checks

Analysts are all over the map. DiCarlo’s $225 Q1 2026 target aligns with the $200 call frenzy, but Google’s PyTorch-TPU push could erode Nvidia’s software moat. The $300.14 2026 projection from other analysts feels optimistic given Nvidia’s slowing revenue growth (62% YoY Q3 vs. 94% a year ago). Here’s the rub: while the stock’s fundamentals still look strong ($57B Q3 revenue), the 45 P/E ratio is a double-edged sword—it could justify growth or invite profit-taking.

Options traders seem to agree. The 0.896 put/call ratio (favoring calls) suggests mild bullish bias, but the $160 put dominance warns of downside risks. If Google’s open-source TorchTPU gains traction, that $160 level might not hold.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Contingency, Puts for Protection

• Bullish Play: Buy NVDA20251226C180 (next Friday’s $180 calls). Why? The stock is hovering near 200D support ($179.98), and a rebound above $176.13 (today’s high) could trigger a test of the 30D MA. Target entry: $173–$175 if price holds above $170.31. Exit at $185 or let run to $200 if the $180 call (OI: 29,868) gets bid up.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy NVDA20251226P160 (next Friday’s $160 puts). If the stock breaks below $170.31, this strike offers downside protection. Stop loss at $165 to avoid getting washed out by short-term volatility.
• Stock Position: Consider dollar-cost averaging into $170–$172 if the stock tests the lower Bollinger Band ($174.52). Target $185 as a near-term goal, with $200 as a stretch if AI demand holds.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Realistic Risks

Nvidia’s story isn’t binary. The AI boom is real, but so are valuation pressures and Google’s software counterattack. Your edge lies in timing: the $160–$200 range could see wild swings between Q4 earnings, Blackwell production ramps, and PyTorch-TPU adoption. Keep an eye on the RSI (49.85)—if it breaks below 40, the bear case strengthens. But if the stock holds above $175, the $200 calls could become a liquidity magnet.

Bottom line: This isn’t a “buy and hold” setup. It’s a high-stakes chess game. Play the options like a hedge fund—defensive puts for protection, speculative calls for upside. And if the stock gaps below $160? That’s when the real fireworks start.