NVDA Down 0.8% on $19.24B Turnover Amid $45B LEO Infrastructure Bet

Nvidia's stock is down 0.8% to $166.19 in today's session, with a turnover of $19.24 billion on 115 million shares. This marks a continuation of recent selling pressure, as the shares have fallen 10.4% over the last 120 days.

Despite that decline, the stock's long-term trajectory remains strong, with a rolling annual return of 58% over the same period. The immediate price action reflects a market digesting the scale of Nvidia's recent bets, even as its core business remains a critical enabler for AI compute.

The Infrastructure Investment Flow

The scale of the money flowing into this new compute layer is staggering. In 2025, investment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) infrastructure surged to more than $45 billion, more than doubling the just under $25 billion invested the year before. This isn't just incremental growth; it's a strategic capital shift toward orbital assets as critical infrastructure.

A standout example is Starcloud, which raised $170 million earlier this month to reach a $1.1 billion valuation. The startup's plan is ambitious, aiming for an 88,000-satellite constellation to host AI workloads. Its major partners, including Amazon, Google, and Nvidia, signal deep industry buy-in for this orbital compute model.

This capital rush is a direct response to terrestrial bottlenecks. As AI demand strains power grids and faces local opposition, companies see space as a viable alternative. Starcloud's recent launch of a satellite with an Nvidia H100 chip proved AI workloads can run reliably in orbit, validating the core investment thesis for this new layer.

Catalysts and Execution Risks

The near-term catalyst is the commercialization of space-based compute, which could create a new, high-margin revenue stream. Starcloud's recent fundraise and its plan for a 88,000-satellite constellation signal the sector is moving from concept to construction. Its upcoming launch with an AWS Outposts offering and binding energy offtake agreements with hyperscalers are concrete steps toward generating revenue from orbital AI workloads.

A major risk is execution and regulatory fragmentation in the LEO sector. The capital rush is real, but high launch costs and a crowded field of players could delay returns. Starcloud's CEO notes it expects launch costs to fall enough by 2028 or 2029 to achieve cost-competitiveness, meaning years of dilutive investment before a payoff.

Nvidia's potential decisive factor is its Blackwell chip performance advantages over the H100. The architecture shift offers significant speedups, which could be a key to winning these new contracts. While benchmarks compare across two generations, the underlying performance leap gives Nvidia a technological edge as it partners with firms like Starcloud to deploy compute in orbit.