Nutrien's Q2 2025: Navigating Contradictions in Potash Demand, Cost Strategies, and Shareholder Returns

Record Potash Sales and Pricing:
- Nutrien generated adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in Q2, up 11% from the prior year, with potash contributing $630 million.
- This was due to record potash sales volumes and higher offshore net selling prices, driven by strong demand and limited global supplies.

Nitrogen Operating Efficiency:
- Nutrien's nitrogen segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $667 million in Q2, up from last year, with a 98% ammonia utilization rate.
- The performance was attributed to reliability projects and successful brownfield debottlenecking efforts, increasing production capacity by 150,000 tonnes.

Capital Expenditure and Cash Distribution:
- Capital expenditures in the first half were 18% below the prior year, and the company allocated $786 million to dividends and share repurchases.
- This reduction in CapEx and increased cash distribution were part of efforts to focus on safe and reliable operations and targeted growth projects.

Global Market Outlook and Demand:
- Global fertilizer fundamentals have strengthened in 2025, with potash prices increasing steadily, driven by strong demand and supply constraints.
- Nutrien raised its 2025 full-year global potash shipment forecast to 73 million to 75 million tonnes, reflecting strong demand levels and limited new capacity additions.