Nutrien NTR Surges 3.02% on Bullish Technical Signals Eyes $63.00–$64.00 Breakout

Nutrien (NTR) has surged 3.02% in the latest session, marking a 7.13% rally over three consecutive days. This sharp upward momentum warrants a detailed technical analysis to assess its sustainability and potential next steps.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action forms a bullish engulfing pattern, with the last three days of gains overtaking prior bearish candles. Key support levels at $56.00–$57.00 (noted in late November/early December) have held, while resistance is forming near $63.00–$64.00 (aligning with the 2025-12-08 high).

The price’s ability to close above $63.00 would confirm a breakout from a descending triangle pattern, suggesting continuation of the uptrend.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum is reinforced by the 50-day MA (approximately $59.50) crossing above the 200-day MA (around $56.00), indicating a bullish “golden cross.” The 100-day MA (~$58.00) acts as a dynamic support level, currently being tested by the price. The 200-day MA remains a critical threshold; a sustained close above $63.00 would widen the gap between short- and long-term averages, signaling stronger trend strength.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows positive divergence, with the line rising above the signal line as the price climbs, suggesting accelerating momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator, however, is in overbought territory (K at ~85, D at ~75), raising caution about a potential pullback. A bearish crossover in the KDJ could precede a retracement toward the $59.00–$60.00 range, though the MACD’s bullish signal may delay this.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the price near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. This “overbought” condition (price at +2σ) suggests heightened near-term risk of mean reversion. However, the bands have not shown significant contraction prior to this move, weakening the case for a “calm before the storm” scenario. A break above the upper band could extend the trend, but a retest of the lower band ($54.00–$55.00) would indicate trend exhaustion.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged in recent sessions, particularly on 2025-12-08 and 2025-12-12, confirming the strength of the rally. The volume profile aligns with price action, with no signs of divergence. However, if volume declines while the price continues to rise, it may signal waning conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI (14-day) is at ~72, entering overbought territory. While this is not uncommon in strong trends, a failure to retrace below 60 could trigger profit-taking. A drop below 50 would invalidate the bullish case, though the current context suggests the RSI may remain elevated for a few more sessions.
Fibonacci Retracement
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (~$61.50) has acted as a psychological hurdle, with the price surging past it in early December. The next target is the 100% extension at ~$65.00, assuming the uptrend persists. A breakdown below the 50% retracement level (~$59.00) would signal a shift to a bearish bias.
Confluence & Divergences
The strongest confluence occurs at $63.00–$64.00, where the 200-day MA, Fibonacci extension, and upper Bollinger Band converge. A successful breakout here would align with bullish signals from the MACD and moving averages. Divergence between the KDJ and MACD highlights a risk of short-term consolidation, though the overall trend remains intact.

Probabilistic Outlook
The near-term bias is bullish, with a ~65% probability of the price testing $63.00–$64.00. However, overbought conditions and Fibonacci resistance suggest a 30% chance of a pullback to $59.00–$60.00. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA as a critical support level and watch for bearish KDJ signals or declining volume as early warnings of trend reversal.