Nutrien (NTR) Slumps 3.78% on Bearish Technical Signals Amid Oversold Conditions and Key Support Tests

Nutrien (NTR) has experienced a sharp decline in recent trading sessions, with a 3.15% drop on the most recent day and a cumulative 3.78% loss over two days. This downward momentum, combined with historical price action, provides a foundation for evaluating technical indicators across multiple frameworks. Below is a structured analysis of key technical perspectives.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action exhibits bearish patterns, including lower highs and lower lows over the past week, suggesting a potential breakdown from prior consolidation. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on January 30, where the closing price ($68.89) fell below the prior session’s body, reinforcing short-term bearish bias. Key support levels are emerging at the January 30 low of $68.15 and the January 23 low of $68.75, while resistance is likely to be found at the January 29 high of $73.065 and the January 28 high of $72.36. A break below $68.15 could trigger further testing of the January 15 low ($65.81), which may act as a psychological floor.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated at ~$66.50) currently sits above the 200-day MA (~$60.00), indicating a medium-term bullish bias. However, the recent price action has dipped below the 50-day MA, suggesting short-term weakness. The 100-day MA (~$65.00) offers a critical support level. A sustained close above this threshold could reinvigorate bullish momentum, while a break below it may accelerate the downtrend. The 200-day MA remains intact as a long-term floor, with confluence between the 200-day MA and the January 15 low (~$65.81) forming a potential consolidation zone.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line in recent sessions, forming a bearish crossover, while the histogram is contracting, indicating weakening momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows the %K line (~25) and %D line (~30) in oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. However, the divergence between the bearish MACD and the oversold KDJ highlights a mixed signal: while the RSI may hint at a bounce, the MACD’s bearish divergence implies the downtrend could persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the upper band at ~$75 and the lower band at ~$65. The current price ($68.89) is positioned closer to the lower band, indicating an overextended short position. A break above the 20-day moving average (~$69.50) could trigger a reversion toward the middle band (~$70), but a sustained close below the lower band may signal increased bearish conviction.

Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged in recent sessions, with the January 30 volume (3.18 million) and January 29 volume (2.29 million) exceeding the 30-day average (~1.5 million). This volume expansion during the decline validates the bearish move but also suggests potential exhaustion if the price fails to break below $68.15. Conversely, a sharp increase in volume on a rebound could signal a short-covering rally.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI has dipped to ~28, entering oversold territory. While this may suggest a potential rebound, it is important to note that RSI can remain oversold during strong downtrends. A stochastic RSI reading of ~22 further supports the idea of a near-term bounce, but confirmation via a close above the 50-day MA (~$66.50) would be necessary to confirm the reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent high of $73.065 (January 29) and low of $65.81 (January 15), key retracement levels include 61.8% at ~$67.50 and 78.6% at ~$69.30. The current price ($68.89) is approaching the 78.6% level, which could act as a temporary support/resistance. A break below 61.8% would target the 50% level (~$69.44), while a rebound above 78.6% may test the January 29 high of $73.065.
The confluence of the 50-day MA (~$66.50) and the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~$67.50) creates a critical decision point: a sustained close above $67.50 could attract buyers, while a break below $66.50 may signal a deeper correction. Divergences between the MACD and KDJ suggest caution, as momentum indicators may not align with price action during volatile periods. Overall, the near-term bias remains bearish but with potential for a short-term bounce if oversold conditions trigger a rebound.