NuScale Power (SMR) Surges 14.6%: What’s Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• NuScale Power (SMR) rockets 14.6% intraday to $16.24, defying a 52-week low of $11.08
• RSI plummets to 17.87, signaling extreme oversold conditions
• Tradr 2X Long SMR Daily ETF (SMU) surges 28.4%, amplifying SMR’s momentum
• Bollinger Bands show price near lower band ($12.09), hinting at potential reversal

NuScale Power’s (SMR) explosive 14.6% rally has ignited a frenzy in the options market, with 19.7 million shares traded—12.9% of its float. The stock’s sharp rebound from a 52-week low and extreme RSI reading suggest a technical-driven rebound, while leveraged ETF SMU’s 28.4% surge underscores speculative fervor. Traders are now dissecting whether this is a short-term bounce or a structural shift in sentiment.

Technical Rebound Ignites SMR Amid Oversold Conditions
NuScale Power’s (SMR) 14.6% intraday surge stems from a classic technical rebound. The stock’s RSI of 17.87—a level typically associated with oversold conditions—triggered algorithmic buying and retail speculation. Price action shows a sharp rebound off the Bollinger Bands lower boundary ($12.09), with the 30-day moving average ($18.34) acting as a distant resistance. The MACD histogram’s positive crossover (-2.75 vs. -2.89 signal line) and the 200-day MA ($30.54) being far above current levels confirm a short-term reversal rather than a fundamental shift.

Leveraged ETF and Call Options Lead the Charge
• Tradr 2X Long SMR Daily ETF (SMU): 28.4% surge, 2X leveraged to SMR’s daily moves
• 200-day average: $30.54 (far above current price)
• RSI: 17.87 (oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $16.24 vs. lower band $12.09
• MACD: -2.75 (histogram positive), Signal Line: -2.89

With SMR trading near its 52-week low and RSI in extreme oversold territory, the 2X leveraged SMU offers amplified exposure to a potential rebound. For options, SMR20260109C16 and SMR20260109C16.5 stand out. The former has 95.38% implied volatility, 16.61% leverage ratio, and 0.55 delta, while the latter offers 94.90% IV and 21.78% leverage. Both contracts show high liquidity (turnover 82,485 and 49,868) and strong gamma (0.1739 and 0.1755), making them responsive to price swings.

SMR20260109C16:
• Code: SMR20260109C16
• Type: Call
• Strike: $16
• Expiry: 2026-01-09
• IV: 95.38% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 16.61% (amplified returns)
• Delta: 0.55 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0976 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1739 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 82,485 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($17.05): $1.05 per contract

SMR20260109C16.5:
• Code: SMR20260109C16.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $16.5
• Expiry: 2026-01-09
• IV: 94.90% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 21.78% (amplified returns)
• Delta: 0.46 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0914 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1755 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 49,868 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($17.05): $0.55 per contract

These options thrive in a continuation of SMR’s rebound, with high gamma ensuring responsiveness to volatility. Aggressive bulls should target a break above $18.34 (30-day MA) to validate the reversal. If $16.50 holds, SMR20260109C16.5 offers a leveraged bet on a potential 10% move.

Backtest NuScale Power Stock Performance
The strategy of buying SMR after a 15% intraday increase from 2022 to now delivered moderate returns but came with considerable volatility. The 30-day win rate was 51.43%, with an average return of 10.95% over that period, indicating the strategy captured some trend following benefits while also exposing investors to significant drawdowns.

Act Now: SMR’s Rebound Hinges on $18.34 Breakout
NuScale Power’s (SMR) 14.6% surge is a technical rebound, not a fundamental shift. The RSI at 17.87 and Bollinger Bands suggest a short-term bounce, but sustainability depends on breaking above $18.34 (30-day MA). Traders should monitor the 200-day MA ($30.54) as a distant resistance and watch for volume spikes in the SMU ETF. If SMR closes above $18.34, consider SMR20260109C16 for leveraged exposure. Sector leader Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) fell -0.0375%, indicating SMR’s move is isolated. Act now: Target a $18.34 breakout or a retest of the $16.50 support level.