NuScale Power (SMR) Surges 13% on Intraday Rally: Is This a Green Energy Breakout or a DCF-Driven Overvaluation?

Summary
• NuScale Power (SMR) rockets 13.08% to $51.78, hitting its 52-week high of $56.16
• Intraday volume surges to 39.35 million shares, 32.28% of its average turnover
• DCF analysis flags stock as 3,135% overvalued, while sector peers and energy demand trends fuel optimism

NuScale Power’s stock has erupted in a 13% intraday surge, driven by a landmark 6-GW SMR deployment program with TVA and ENTRA1 Energy. Despite a DCF model valuing the stock at just $1.21, the rally reflects growing investor confidence in small modular reactors (SMRs) amid surging U.S. electricity demand. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and options volatility spiking, the question looms: Is this a sustainable green energy revolution or a speculative overreach?

Landmark SMR Deployment Fuels Short-Term Optimism
NuScale Power’s 13% intraday surge is directly tied to its partnership with TVA and ENTRA1 Energy to deploy a 6-GW SMR program—the largest in U.S. history. This collaboration, announced on October 15, positions NuScale as a key player in the clean energy transition, aligning with ICF’s projection of 78% U.S. electricity demand growth by 2050. While the DCF model highlights overvaluation risks, the market is pricing in near-term execution confidence, particularly as the company’s 77 MWe SMR design recently received U.S. NRC approval. The rally also reflects broader sector momentum, with AI-driven data centers and EVs straining the grid and elevating demand for scalable nuclear solutions.

Electric Utilities Sector Gains Momentum as NuScale Leads SMR Charge
The Electric Utilities sector is experiencing renewed interest as U.S. electricity demand surges. NuScale’s 13% rally outpaces BWX Technologies (BWX), a sector leader up 0.46% intraday. While BWX focuses on traditional nuclear components, NuScale’s SMR innovation aligns with the ICF report’s emphasis on 30% solar, 20% battery storage, and 30% nuclear in future energy mix. The sector’s 25% demand growth by 2030 underscores the urgency for scalable solutions, positioning NuScale’s SMR deployment as a catalyst for long-term sector outperformance.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on NuScale’s Volatility and Sector Tailwinds
• MACD: 1.218 (above signal line 0.5996), RSI: 62.44 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $46.65 (upper), $40.17 (middle), $33.69 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $29.01 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $38.86 (bullish divergence)

NuScale’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with the stock trading above its 200-day MA and MACD in positive territory. The RSI at 62.44 indicates no immediate overbought conditions, but the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($56.16) raises caution. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• SMR20251024C55 (Call):
- Strike: $55, Expiry: 2025-10-24, IV: 139.65%, Delta: 0.428, Theta: -0.308, Gamma: 0.033, Turnover: $11.35M
- IV (high volatility) and Delta (moderate directional bias) suggest strong potential for a 5% upside move. Theta indicates rapid time decay, favoring quick execution. Gamma ensures sensitivity to price swings. Projected payoff: $1.39 per share if SMR hits $56.16.
• SMR20251024P48 (Put):
- Strike: $48, Expiry: 2025-10-24, IV: 140.54%, Delta: -0.342, Theta: -0.136, Gamma: 0.031, Turnover: $5.84M
- Delta offers downside protection if the rally falters, while IV and Gamma provide leverage. Theta is less aggressive, suiting a hedging strategy. Projected payoff: $3.78 per share if SMR dips to $47.96.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target SMR20251024C55 for a 5% upside, while cautious traders may hedge with SMR20251024P48. Monitor the $56.16 resistance and $47.96 support levels. If NuScale breaks above $56.16, the SMR20251024C55 call could unlock significant gains.

Backtest NuScale Power Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-study report. Key take-aways (not duplicated in the chart):• 31 separate 13 %+ intraday surges have occurred since 2022. • The next-day performance is statistically negative (-2.3 % average, 32 % win-rate). • By day 7 the average excess return turns positive, and by day 30 the cumulative return is +11.3 % versus +10.7 % for the benchmark – a mild out-performance that is not statistically significant. • No obvious optimal holding window emerges; the pattern is volatile, suggesting “sell the pop” within the first 1–2 sessions may be the more reliable trade.Parameter notes 1. Back-test window automatically set to 2022-01-01 → 2025-10-14 to cover “2022 to now”. 2. Close prices were used because intraday tick data are not required for a daily event study and ensure maximum historical coverage. 3. Default 30-day look-ahead window adopted (industry standard for post-event drift studies). Please review the full interactive results below.(If the module does not load automatically, please refresh the chat or click the link above to download the JSON result.)

NuScale’s SMR Breakthrough: A Green Energy Inflection Point or a DCF-Driven Bubble?
NuScale’s 13% surge reflects a pivotal moment in the clean energy transition, driven by its 6-GW SMR deployment and sector tailwinds. While DCF models flag overvaluation, the market is pricing in execution confidence and AI/data center-driven demand. BWX’s 0.46% gain underscores sector-wide optimism. Investors should watch the $56.16 resistance and $47.96 support levels, with SMR20251024C55 offering high-reward potential if the rally continues. For now, the SMR story is a high-stakes bet on NuScale’s ability to scale SMR commercialization amid a $30B nuclear energy market expansion.