NuScale Power Plunges 9.4% Amid Valuation Doubts and Sector Turbulence

Summary
• NuScale Power (SMR) drops 9.38% intraday to $40.66, erasing $4.31 from its open price of $43.66
• Intraday range spans $40.56 to $43.99, with turnover surging to 7.43 million shares
• 52-week high of $57.42 and 52-week low of $11.08 highlight extreme volatility

NuScale Power’s stock is in freefall as investors grapple with valuation skepticism and sector-wide headwinds. The sharp selloff follows a surge in options volume and broker upgrades earlier this week, but growing doubts about the company’s ability to commercialize its small modular reactor (SMR) technology are fueling profit-taking. With the stock trading near its 200-day moving average of $30.46, the sell-off underscores the fragility of momentum in a sector facing regulatory and policy uncertainty.

Valuation Skepticism and Sector Headwinds Trigger Sharp Selloff
NuScale’s collapse reflects a collision of short-term profit-taking and long-term valuation concerns. Despite a 6 GW partnership with TVA and ENTRA1 Energy, analysts question whether the stock’s 279% three-year gain has already priced in future growth. The Simply Wall St narrative highlights risks like unconfirmed long-term contracts and funding challenges, which have amplified volatility. Meanwhile, the broader electric utilities sector is under pressure as Trump-era policies disrupt grid planning and utilities face $34 billion in rate hikes. NuScale’s lack of commercial reactor deployments further fuels skepticism, making the stock a high-risk bet for investors.

Electric Utilities Sector Under Pressure as Policy Uncertainty Lingers
The electric utilities sector is broadly struggling as Trump’s pro-fossil fuel agenda clashes with long-term grid planning cycles. Exelon (EXC), the sector’s largest player, is down 0.92% intraday, reflecting broader unease. Utilities are caught between emergency orders to keep coal plants operational and surging demand from AI data centers, which require off-grid power solutions. NuScale’s SMR technology is seen as a potential disruptor, but its lack of commercial projects and reliance on government contracts make it a volatile outlier in a sector already grappling with regulatory and financial headwinds.

Options and ETFs Highlight Volatility Playbook
• MACD: 0.61 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.51, Histogram: 0.097 (positive momentum)
• RSI: 49.8 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $33.34–$50.56 (wide range), 200D MA: $30.46 (below current price)
• 30D Support: $38.09–$38.46, 200D Support: $34.65–$35.46

NuScale’s technicals suggest a volatile but structurally resilient setup. The stock is trading near its 200-day average, with RSI hovering near neutrality, indicating no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands remain wide, reflecting persistent uncertainty. For options traders, the SMR20251107P40 and SMR20251107P41.5 contracts stand out. The former offers a 18.88% leverage ratio and 82.67% price change potential, while the latter provides a 12.89% leverage ratio and 25.50% price change. Both contracts have high implied volatility (161.90% and 140.49%) and strong liquidity (turnover of 338,352 and 219,927 shares).

• SMR20251107P40: Put option with $40 strike, 161.90% IV, 18.88% leverage, -0.136155 theta, 0.051055 gamma, 338,352 turnover. High leverage and moderate gamma make this ideal for a bearish bet.
• SMR20251107P41.5: Put option with $41.5 strike, 140.49% IV, 12.89% leverage, -0.066925 theta, 0.059690 gamma, 219,927 turnover. Strong gamma and liquidity support a short-term volatility play.

Under a 5% downside scenario (ST = $38.63), the SMR20251107P40 payoff would be $1.37 per contract, while the SMR20251107P41.5 would yield $2.87. Aggressive bears may consider SMR20251107P40 into a breakdown below $39, while volatility traders could target SMR20251107P41.5 for a short-term play on gamma-driven price swings.

Backtest NuScale Power Stock Performance
I attempted to generate the list of dates on which NuScale Power (SMR.N) experienced an intraday decline of at least –9 % versus the previous-day close (the “event dates”) so that we could feed those dates into the event-study back-test engine. However, the automatic event-date extraction step did not succeed (the data-processing service reported a “code_result not found” error). This often happens when the service needs an explicit calculation rule for the event identification but none was provided in the call.To move forward, we have two practical options:1. Retry the automated extraction, this time passing an explicit rule that tells the engine exactly how to derive the event dates (e.g. “flag any trading day whose low ≤ 0.91 × previous-day close”). This should give us a complete, precise list of event dates from 2022-01-03 through 2025-11-03, which we can then feed into the event-back-test engine for a full statistical analysis.2. If you would prefer a quicker, approximate answer, I can instead pull the raw OHLC data into my workspace, calculate the –9 % intraday plunge dates locally, and then run the event-back-test on that list—all without relying on the automated merge service. This avoids the error but involves a manual computation step on my end (no extra input needed from you).Please let me know which approach you’d like me to take, or if you have any specific preferences (e.g., risk-control settings, holding-period windows, etc.) for the back-test.

NuScale at Pivotal Crossroads: Watch for $39 Support and Sector Catalysts
NuScale’s selloff highlights the precarious balance between speculative optimism and commercial reality. While the stock’s technicals suggest a potential rebound near $39, the broader electric utilities sector remains vulnerable to policy shifts and rising electricity costs. Investors should monitor the $39 level for a potential reversal and keep an eye on Exelon’s -0.92% move as a sector barometer. For now, the key takeaway is to avoid overexposure to NuScale’s high-risk narrative and instead focus on sector-wide catalysts like grid modernization funding or AI-driven demand surges. Watch for $39 breakdown or regulatory reaction.